Only 2 UK Covid deaths in last 24 hours

To be honest I think if we are still getting 2 deaths and several thousand confirmed cases a day in five or six weeks time it will probably be time for the Government to start looking at things differently.
 
Scaramanga said:
At what deaths per day is it going to be classed as safe ?
Click to expand...
What determines safe though?

What's the death rate of being hit by a car?
Being knocked over by a dog?
Falling over in public?
Being stabbed?
Being punched?

I'm not under playing this as it's a LONG way to go but there has to be some common sense if we don't see hospitalisations and death rate rise.
 
glasshalffull said:
Yes that is where the hope lies isn’t it. Too early to call it either way yet.
Click to expand...

Worryingly however, it's still early September, it's still fairly warm outside, schools have only just gone back, I think the unis re-open next week, if it's 3,000 per day now what's it going to be like in November?
 
SeasideKurt said:
What determines safe though?

What's the death rate of being hit by a car?
Being knocked over by a dog?
Falling over in public
Being stabbed?
Being punched?

I'm not under playing this as it's a LONG way to go but there has to be some common sense if we don't see hospitalisations and death rate rise.
Click to expand...

All the scenarios you present are one offs. A point in time events. COVID is on going and all around (to a degree).

One thing that has to happen is people need to get rid of the compliancy, or be forced to have it taken away from them.
 
Quite a jump in number of people in hospital in England today, up from 464 to 537. Highest number since end of July. Hoping it is just a blip but starting to get a bit worrying.
 
Worrying because deaths and hospital admissions are lagging indicators. We may be about to enter the worst period.
Hopefully a vaccine will be available soon, that is the realistic way out of this situation
 
It’s also about agendas as I keep saying. Just under 300 people die every day from alcohol related deaths. 300!!!!
So how many are hospitalised by alcohol right now compared to Covid?

would you consider in a non Covid world that pubs, off license and supermarkets were stopped from selling booze for 4 months until we get the number down to single figures?
 
SeasideKurt said:
What determines safe though?

What's the death rate of being hit by a car?
Being knocked over by a dog?
Falling over in public?
Being stabbed?
Being punched?

I'm not under playing this as it's a LONG way to go but there has to be some common sense if we don't see hospitalisations and death rate rise.
Click to expand...
Kurt, your talking to someone who has said over and over that there will be massive repercussions if we don’t at least try and get on with it. lets Get on with it ffs, how long are we going to live like this for.
 
Scaramanga said:
Kurt, your talking to someone who has said over and over that there will be massive repercussions if we don’t at least try and get on with it. lets Get on with it ffs, how long are we going to live like this for.
Click to expand...
For the rest of your natural.

You’ll be forced to wear a mask; even sat at home, on your own.

No more pubs. No more clubs. And certainly no footie clubs.

You might though be allowed out to work. Assuming you can climb over the bodies.

This is the new normal.
 
Chunkylad said:
It’s also about agendas as I keep saying. Just under 300 people die every day from alcohol related deaths. 300!!!!
Click to expand...

Do you have a source for that?

The only way I can see that claim stacking up is if you're including heart disease in that number, but whilst alcohol is a risk factor it's not the only one and most likely is a minor risk compared to other factors such as diet, smoking, exercise etc.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
Hopefully a vaccine will be available soon, that is the realistic way out of this situation
Click to expand...

Probably early next year by the looks of it: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...uk-latest-cases-deaths-airport-tests-schools/

A coronavirus vaccine could be ready this year in a best-case scenario, but it is more likely to happen in the early part of next year, Matt Hancock has said.

The Health Secretary told LBC that production of the UK’s batch of AstraZeneca vaccines, which has been developed in collaboration with researchers at Oxford University, had already begun – well ahead of any approval being granted.


Also, on a related topic: Rise in UK cases a great concern, Van Tam says

Prof Jonathan Van Tam said people have "relaxed too much" over the summer and "we have got to start taking this very seriously again".

If not, the UK will have "a bumpy ride over the next few months", he warned.

He said that infections among younger people in EU countries had later filtered through to older age groups.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Do you have a source for that?

The only way I can see that claim stacking up is if you're including heart disease in that number, but whilst alcohol is a risk factor it's not the only one and most likely is a minor risk compared to other factors such as diet, smoking, exercise etc.
Click to expand...
I’ll drink to that!!
 
Mexboroseasider said:
For the rest of your natural.

You’ll be forced to wear a mask; even sat at home, on your own.

No more pubs. No more clubs. And certainly no footie clubs.

You might though be allowed out to work. Assuming you can climb over the bodies.

This is the new normal.
Click to expand...
What a pathetic reply.
 
Saying that only 2 people died doesn't resolve the increasing infection rate problem. Inevitably, the more young people that are infected, the more elderly people that are going to be infected. The more elderly that become infected, the higher the death rate will be.
 
tangerinenotorange said:
Saying that only 2 people died doesn't resolve the increasing infection rate problem. Inevitably, the more young people that are infected, the more elderly people that are going to be infected. The more elderly that become infected, the higher the death rate will be.
Click to expand...
In a nutshell - that’s the point.
 
tangerinenotorange said:
Saying that only 2 people died doesn't resolve the increasing infection rate problem. Inevitably, the more young people that are infected, the more elderly people that are going to be infected. The more elderly that become infected, the higher the death rate will be.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but what if the death rate doesn't increase dramatically? We were told a second wave was coming two months ago when everyone was crying about marches and people at the beaches? There's no way we can see cases rise by 3k a day and not start to see hospital admissions rise irrespective of the timescale. The virus is everywhere and yet we're still at 2 deaths per day and low hospital admissions. Something doesn't add up.
 
SeasideKurt said:
Yeah, but what if the death rate doesn't increase dramatically? We were told a second wave was coming two months ago when everyone was crying about marches and people at the beaches? There's no way we can see cases rise by 3k a day and not start to see hospital admissions rise irrespective of the timescale. The virus is everywhere and yet we're still at 2 deaths per day and low hospital admissions. Something doesn't add up.
Click to expand...
Hospital admissions have started rising if you look at the supporting data. The top level reported number (124) is nearly 2 weeks (26/8) out of date due to Scotland not reporting daily of which 52 were admitted in England. There were 94 admissions in England on the last reported date (5/9).
 
SeasideKurt said:
Something doesn't add up.
Click to expand...

Mostly demographics, if the rise in infection is concentrated amongst those under 30 then it'll have very little effect on the death rate, probably low single figures will die each day from that age group at the current rate of infection.

The problem is that the rise in infections in the above age group likely leads to a rise in infections amongst those aged 30+ two or three weeks later followed by a rise in hospital admissions and deaths 2 or 3 weeks after that, so you likely won't see the effects of the current upturn until the end of this month.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Mostly demographics, if the rise in infection is concentrated amongst those under 30 then it'll have very little effect on the death rate, probably low single figures will die each day from that age group at the current rate of infection.

The problem is that the rise in infections in the above age group likely leads to a rise in infections amongst those aged 30+ two or three weeks later followed by a rise in hospital admissions and deaths 2 or 3 weeks after that, so you likely won't see the effects of the current upturn until the end of this month.
Click to expand...
But we were told the same in July? We won't see the effects until the end of August. It's like there is a clamouring for a second spike. It's kinda weird tbh.
 
Too many experts (virologists, epidemiologists) are now concerned about this for my liking. There seems to be consistent thinking that the virus is taking hold again and spreading in Europe. This is no time for anyone to start cutting corners.
 
SeasideKurt said:
But we were told the same in July?
Click to expand...

We're we?

IIRC we were told that a second spike was a risk but I was under the impression that the autumn/winter was the biggest concern and where we would likely see such a thing, now it seems that the warnings are coming true.
 
Lost Seasider said:
We're we?

IIRC we were told that a second spike was a risk but I was under the impression that the autumn/winter was the biggest concern and where we would likely see such a thing, now it seems that the warnings are coming true.
Click to expand...
Yep, you must have been in a coma for when the beaches were opened and the BLM marches happened.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Or you may have misunderstood what was being said.

Any chance of a link to support your original claim.
Click to expand...
What claim? I don't need a link. Just being alive and paying attention is enough. A second spike warning was given for August. As I said, you must have been in a coma. I didn't mis understand.
 
Lost Seasider said:
We're we?

IIRC we were told that a second spike was a risk but I was under the impression that the autumn/winter was the biggest concern and where we would likely see such a thing, now it seems that the warnings are coming true.
Click to expand...

I’ve heard a couple of competing theories regarding the winter period.

1. Is that the virus may spread less, due to us being more isolated from each other as we stay at home more... (not sure about that tbh)

2. The other is that other ‘competing’ viruses might overwhelm the Covid 19 virus and thereby limit its incidence.

The rise in cases is a concern and will inevitably lead to more death if it continues. Of equal concern to me, is how we are going to cope with increased incidence of a range of different illnesses with similar symptoms over the winter. The testing system seems to be creaking at the seems and it’s starting to feel like we are on the verge of losing control already.
 
SeasideKurt said:
What claim?
Click to expand...

This one:

SeasideKurt said:
But we were told the same in July? We won't see the effects until the end of August. It's like there is a clamouring for a second spike. It's kinda weird tbh.
Click to expand...


SeasideKurt said:
I don't need a link. Just being alive and paying attention is enough.
Click to expand...

Often what you remember is not the same as what actually happened, and if you don't provide a link it's much harder to examine your claim further (often why links aren't provided).


SeasideKurt said:
A second spike warning was given for August.
Click to expand...
  1. Who gave this warning?
  2. On what day was the warning given?
  3. What were the precise details of the warning?
  4. Was it a specific warning that something was going to happen or a general warning that something might?

SeasideKurt said:
Just use google mate, I did and there was loads of stuff littered around June July and start of August. Not hard.
Click to expand...

Just done that and it's easy to prove that no such warning was given, just use Google if you don't believe me.
 
Lost Seasider said:
This one:






Often what you remember is not the same as what actually happened, and if you don't provide a link it's much harder to examine your claim further (often why links aren't provided).



  1. Who gave this warning?
  2. On what day was the warning given?
  3. What were the precise details of the warning?
  4. Was it a specific warning that something was going to happen or a general warning that something might?



Just done that and it's easy to prove that no such warning was given, just use Google if you don't believe me.
Click to expand...
You must be ** blind then or can't use google properly. Looks like a bit of both.
 
SeasideKurt said:
You must be ** blind then or can't use google properly. Looks like a bit of both.
Click to expand...

I can use Google perfectly fine, I'm just pointing out that you're making claims and then refusing to back them up with evidence.

So, since you're seemingly too stupid to work out how to post a simple hyperlink I'll do it for you:

From 28 July: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53566043

Boris Johnson has warned there are signs of a "second wave" of coronavirus in Europe, as he defended a 14-day quarantine on travellers from Spain.

Right at the end of July, "signs of a second wave" in other countries, no firm predictions about timing or scale of second wave in UK, thus nothing to support your original claim.


From 14 July: https://news.sky.com/story/second-c...s-than-the-first-top-scientists-warn-12027912

Coronavirus infections could grow "out of control" in the UK with a second spike leading to 120,000 deaths in a "reasonable worst-case scenario", ministers have been warned.

The 37 scientists and academics behind the report said the peak in hospital admissions and deaths could come in January and February 2021.

"As we move into winter, the weather gets worse, people stay indoors more, windows aren't open so the likelihood of transmission does of course increase," she said.


I can find plenty of other warnings about a second spike at an undefined point in the future, I can find nothing to support your claim that we would see such a spike by the end of August.

Thus, since you refuse to provide evidence to support it we have to conclude that your claim is false.
 
In fairness, we’ve had regular warnings of a second spike / wave ever since the first spike started to fall. Up until fairly recently we haven’t seen a significant rise in cases in the U.K.

You can’t ignore the reality, though fortunately (again) we are behind countries like France and Spain and can gauge how thing progress there to determine our own response.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
In fairness, we’ve had regular warnings of a second spike / wave ever since the first spike started to fall. Up until fairly recently we haven’t seen a significant rise in cases in the U.K.
Click to expand...

Agreed, however they've always been general warnings about what could happen at an unspecified point in the future.

The claim I'm disputing seems to be that because we haven't had a second spike already we're not going to get one.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Agreed, however they've always been general warnings about what could happen at an unspecified point in the future.

The claim I'm disputing seems to be that because we haven't had a second spike already we're not going to get one.
Click to expand...

This is why I get so frustrated with the press and also Government and expert messaging. It’s all good if you have a population that’s capable of drawing those sorts of distinctions, but unfortunately that’s not the case.

I’ve used the term “boy who cried wolf” before and whilst I 100% agree, previous warnings have been largely non-specific, they still add to the issue.

We now have a situation where many people won’t take the situation seriously, because the past warnings/predictions have not materialised.
 
fcblackpool said:
All the scenarios you present are one offs. A point in time events. COVID is on going and all around (to a degree).

One thing that has to happen is people need to get rid of the compliancy, or be forced to have it taken away from them.
Click to expand...
There's a paradox in Hancock blaming the surge on 17-21 year olds in one breath while Williamson insists schools and colleges are safe and get back in there. How does that square up?
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
This is why I get so frustrated with the press and also Government and expert messaging. It’s all good if you have a population that’s capable of drawing those sorts of distinctions, but unfortunately that’s not the case.

I’ve used the term “boy who cried wolf” before and whilst I 100% agree, previous warnings have been largely non-specific, they still add to the issue.

We now have a situation where many people won’t take the situation seriously, because the past warnings/predictions have not materialised.
Click to expand...

Well they're f***ed either way then aren't they?
  • Issue warnings about the risk, the public gets used to them and starts to ignore them and the virus spreads;
  • don't issue warnings, there's nothing for the public to ignore and the virus spreads.
Personally I think there's no way these warnings couldn't have been given, the risk was there, the public had to be made aware of it, anything else would have been irresponsible.

Finally, can you imagine the leftist glee had the government remained silent as we now start to see the emergence of a second spike.
 
Wizaard said:
There's a paradox in Hancock blaming the surge on 17-21 year olds in one breath while Williamson insists schools and colleges are safe and get back in there. How does that square up?
Click to expand...

Well, partly I guess that since they're ignoring social distancing anyway it makes little difference if they're in school or not, in fact quite possibly it reduces the risk of infection.

There is also the cost/benefit analysis, the cost of closing down schools for perhaps a year or more outweighs the expected effect on the infection rate.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Well they're f***ed either way then aren't they?
  • Issue warnings about the risk, the public gets used to them and starts to ignore them and the virus spreads;
  • don't issue warnings, there's nothing for the public to ignore and the virus spreads.
Personally I think there's no way these warnings couldn't have been given, the risk was there, the public had to be made aware of it, anything else would have been irresponsible.

Finally, can you imagine the leftist glee had the government remained silent as we now start to see the emergence of a second spike.
Click to expand...

A lot of the stuff about ‘second waves’ has been unnecessary really. Particularly a lot of the stuff that has been pushed in the media.

It’s a balancing act of course and, you’re right, there’s an element of “damned if they do......etc”

I just think that many people have got “second spike” burnout.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
I just think that many people have got “second spike” burnout.
Click to expand...

I think perhaps it's a more general "lockdown fatigue", the crisis has been going on for 7/8 months now, people have had enough and want to go back to normal.

Interesingly "lockdown fatigue" was one of the stones that was thrown at the government and SAGE over the timing of lockdown, perhaps they were right all along.

Also, the spike is among under 30's, are they really the ones glued to the news outlets? I doubt many of them pay much attention to the pronouncements of the PM, let alone the various civil servants.

Finally, just from personal observations, I think this age group had largely said f*** it by the end of May.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top