You are not in the UK.
This government has all of the hall-marks of a dying government - it's a lot like the last days of Major. Many back benchers are resigned to losing their seats or being in opposition in two years time. This gives them license to be undisciplined and rebellious. Scandal after scandal keeps turning up, this time usually about personal behaviour judged by the standards of 2022. In the background is the impact of the Brexit that so many Conservattives supported that is starting to become more visible - 4% of GDP is a lot of money and we really need it now. The economy cannot be fixed until a government faces the reality of the damage being caused by isolating ourselves as we have. There is also the ticking timebomb of Covid fraud and Covid contract awards that will no doubt be scrutinised in detail at some future point. It's all bad news on bad news. The tax burden is now higher than at any point since WW2 and there is an air of crisis in almost all public services. This is after a 12 year run at being the government.
Therefore IMO there is no way that Sunak can pull back a 25% Labour lead in two years whilst implementing tax rises and in the midst of a recession. One thing that Sunak said during his leadership campaign with Truss was 'If Conservatives are not for sound money then what are we for?'. Well, they have shown that they are not for sound money and have blown a £30 billion hole in the budget as a result that we are all going to be paying for. Any pretence of economic credibility has gone and along with it any chance of winning the next election. So it will be Starmer who may be a more radical PM than many currently think. Reeves made a very good speech yesterday and looks like she would be a credible and steady chancellor. Knowing all this, Hunt has front-loaded many of the changes in the budget to take effect in 2025 in order to stifle a future government with the hope of winning again in 2029 / 2030 IMO.
Im not in the uk, but i pay a lot of attention certainly more attention than i do to spanish politics, because i am occasionally paid to pay attention to what goes on in the UK. I still have family in the UK as well.
I think you are right in almost everything you say, but you cannot dismiss the general tendencies of voting patterns, Polls are not a good indicator, but Sunak has already pulled back four or so points, as he goes on being more pragmatic and hitting key issues at least perceptionally i think he will get the waverers back, and a few short term bribes will get the floaters.
There is still a good 10-15% of the UK population who think that Brexit still was and is a good idea, that problems caused by Brexit are still the fault of the EU, you've worn yourself out explaining to individuals on this very forum. When you have that level of intransience, and the hard left has its own intransience then the focus for policy comes to the ones who can be changed 42-44% of the vote will get a significant majority in parliament
You might be right about the current group stifling a labour government in the next parliameent, in the hope of coming back in 2029, i just cant see it. If that was to happen then Sunak would be out after the loss at the next GE, and I get the impression he wants to be there for the long haul and has the strategic intelligence to do that. His core ideologies align with the worst of the Tories, if they were to give up a GE to regroup its a very risky strategy.
I've worked with politicians and hi level government people and they are rarely particularly smart and often not very strategic, that mostly comes from their backroom staff - the smarts and the strategies.
Even if they are providing a short stop to hinder a labour government now with a view to re-grouping, even a surprise win at the next GE wouldnt hinder them, as we have seen that the tory party can flip flop policies at a whim. Your seeming suggestion is that a non tory government would be a single term administration, and probably not capable of extending beyond that which kind of points to my long term thinking that the Labour or the lib dems or the greens in their current guise couldnt form a stable governement to challenge an overriding tendency towards conservativism in the UK.
I hope im wrong.
Ill add something, i think its a dying party rather than a dying government, which is another reason i think Sunak might re-invent it, and take it down routes where the old school thatcherites or big company libertarians sit. A lot of the real morons of the Tory party might be moved along for a more ideologically focused group.