OK let's start with the popular contention on this board that Brexit is responsible for the UK's economic difficulties. I say that this is a total misconception and support that view with the prediction from the German government that its economy will fall into recession in 2023. In fact, the eurozone’s big four economies, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, have had their growth forecasts for 2023 downgraded by the IMF and will enter recession. The reason given for this is a combination of covid, the war in Ukraine, the global energy crisis, the weak Euro and sustained inflation.
In the UK, inflation is at a 40 year high and it too is expected to enter recession. The reasons are given as the impact of soaring energy prices, supply chain disruption, shortage of workers and covid. Analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit say the pain for affected countries could go on for some time while they wean themselves off Russian hydrocarbons and build up renewables sources of energy. The EIU said. “The winter of 2023-24 will also be challenging and high inflation and sluggish growth will continue until at least 2024.”
Apart from the UK, many of the world’s leading economies will fall into a recession within the next 12 months as central banks move to aggressively tighten monetary policy to fight surging inflation so as well as the Eurozone and the UK expect recession in the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada next year. A result of Brexit? Not even close