Sage minutes, 16 March
1. On the basis of accumulating data, including on NHS critical care capacity, the advice from SAGE has changed regarding the speed of implementation of additional interventions.
2. SAGE advises that there is clear evidence to support additional social distancing measures be introduced as soon as possible.
4. SAGE will further review at its next meeting whether, in the light of new data, school closures may also be required to prevent NHS capacity being exceeded.
Nothing about lockdown in there, schools are remaining open so in fact they are explicitly excluding lockdown at this point.
So what do they mean by "additional social distancing"?
Sage minutes, 10 March
32. A summary of triggers and timings for the 3 interventions under consideration isset out in the table below.
Measure and/or combination of measures | Suggested Trigger Point | Estimated time of occurrence |
(1) Home Isolation of symptomatic cases | ICU cases tracking and other surveillance data, with a presumption that we have reached 100 ICU cases (cumulative) | Within the next 10 days |
(2) Whole Household isolation | Based on cumulative ICU cases tracking and other surveillance data Actual trigger point: somewhere between 100 and 300 ICU cases (cumulative) | 1-3 weeks after (1) |
(3) Social distancing for 70+ and vulnerable groups | Cumulative ICU cases and other surveillance data
Somewhere between 100 and 300 ICU cases (cumulative) | 1-3 weeks after (1) |
And the
actual government response:
16 March
Prime Minister Boris Johnson advises everyone in the UK against "non-essential" travel and contact with others, to curb coronavirus, as well as to work from home if possible and avoid visiting social venues such as pubs, clubs or theatres. Pregnant women, people over the age of 70 and those with certain health conditions are urged to consider the advice "particularly important", and will be asked to self-isolate within days.[65] The Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport states "it is advised that large gatherings should not take place"
So on the same day that they are advised to introduce additional measures they've gone far beyond anything that was being suggested 6 days ago and you think this is a slow response.
In fact, if you look at the
Sage minutes, 23 March, there is nothing at all in there about further measures and "lockdown" was the government going even further than Sage recommended without waiting for further scientific evidence to become available.
Based on a throw away comment by Neil Ferguson that is highly debatable once you consider the effect of the social distancing measures that were in place and the likely R rate both before and after lockdown.
And note that Prof. Ferguson was not recommending "lockdown" at the time.
The information would have been available the day before, the meeting could easily have taken place 12-18 hours earlier and if it had been the UK government likely would have.
I fail to spot an error on my part, would you like to acknowledge your error on the timing of lockdown?