"The markets .."

td53

Well-known member
It's interesting how we were told that Corbyn spooked 'the markets' and now it turns out that at the other end of the spectrum, Truss spooks 'the markets'

Essentially, it would appear that 'the markets' rule out anything on either side of the political spectrum that doesn't resemble a status quo.

This, do we actually live in a democracy or do we live in a dictatorship of the markets?

I'm the last person to defend Ms Truss's ideological viewpoint BUT... at the same time, it troubles me that we appear to be stuck in a rut where we do the same thing forever because of invisible, unelected, faceless forces that have more influence than anything else...

Discuss:
 
It's interesting how we were told that Corbyn spooked 'the markets' and now it turns out that at the other end of the spectrum, Truss spooks 'the markets'

Essentially, it would appear that 'the markets' rule out anything on either side of the political spectrum that doesn't resemble a status quo.

This, do we actually live in a democracy or do we live in a dictatorship of the markets?

I'm the last person to defend Ms Truss's ideological viewpoint BUT... at the same time, it troubles me that we appear to be stuck in a rut where we do the same thing forever because of invisible, unelected, faceless forces that have more influence than anything else...

Discuss:
Completely agree; I'd go as far as to say that certain individuals have benefitted massively from the recent turmoil and were able to do so because they knew exactly what was going to happen, and continue to pull the strings.
 
It's interesting how we were told that Corbyn spooked 'the markets' and now it turns out that at the other end of the spectrum, Truss spooks 'the markets'

Essentially, it would appear that 'the markets' rule out anything on either side of the political spectrum that doesn't resemble a status quo.

This, do we actually live in a democracy or do we live in a dictatorship of the markets?

I'm the last person to defend Ms Truss's ideological viewpoint BUT... at the same time, it troubles me that we appear to be stuck in a rut where we do the same thing forever because of invisible, unelected, faceless forces that have more influence than anything else...

Discuss:
Yes, it does seem were handcuffed to the opinions of the financial institutions, although we can’t underestimate the impact of the pandemic and Ukraine war on those opinions.
 
It feels almost pre-conceived. Deliver a shit show of a budget based on an out dated and mainly ridiculed Trickle down supply side economic theory.

Banker friends cash in and make an absolute fortune in a stagnant and poor trading market (where’s this years bunce going to actually come from…. We need a run on the pound in some way?).

Unsustainable so of course it will have to be repealed weeks later… step in Hunt to do just that, return it back to previous position less the massive profit to their trader friends.

The profit gap to trader friends will be made up by scrapping energy support in April and further reduced public spending.

Clever manipulation of the market for personal gain by a small number of private individuals or just pure coincidence?
 
It feels almost pre-conceived. Deliver a shit show of a budget based on an out dated and mainly ridiculed Trickle down supply side economic theory.

Banker friends cash in and make an absolute fortune in a stagnant and poor trading market (where’s this years bunce going to actually come from…. We need a run on the pound in some way?).

Unsustainable so of course it will have to be repealed weeks later… step in Hunt to do just that, return it back to previous position less the massive profit to their trader friends.

The profit gap to trader friends will be made up by scrapping energy support in April and further reduced public spending.

Clever manipulation of the market for personal gain by a small number of private individuals or just pure coincidence?
You could be right, but we’ll never know for sure.
 
On the plus side, we’ve dropped the ‘Build Back Better’ slogan they kept promoting during lockdown and restrictions 👍🏼
 
It seems the markets may tolerate change but only in very slight increments at a time. Unless we change things very slowly we may always be dictated to by them.
I guess that doesn’t mean we can’t make big changes, but the speed at which we go from one financial policy standpoint to another may need to be staggered very slowly.
 
It shows who they’ll listen to and it ain’t normal working people.
 
It seems the markets may tolerate change but only in very slight increments at a time. Unless we change things very slowly we may always be dictated to by them.
I guess that doesn’t mean we can’t make big changes, but the speed at which we go from one financial policy standpoint to another may need to be staggered very slowly.
Making big changes based on policies that have been proven to be incorrect and not backed up by independent analysis is asking for trouble.

Imagine running a business and going to the bank and asking to borrow more money. The bank ask how you are going to pay it back and you say I am going to reduce all my prices by 25 % and make more money by selling a lot more product. 'Oh, by the way I haven't done any research on how this work but I am sure it will.' I am pretty sure what the answer from the bank will be.This essentially is what Truss/Kwarteng have just done.
 
And uncertainty = risk, both absolute non starters for investors
Exactly.

The price of the market is defined in known circumstances - start changing that and it all goes haywire.

Hence why the Treasury announced a statement was happening before the markets opened and the speaker allowed it to be announced before the house sat - which is normally a no no.
 
Making big changes based on policies that have been proven to be incorrect and not backed up by independent analysis is asking for trouble.

Imagine running a business and going to the bank and asking to borrow more money. The bank ask how you are going to pay it back and you say I am going to reduce all my prices by 25 % and make more money by selling a lot more product. 'Oh, by the way I haven't done any research on how this work but I am sure it will.' I am pretty sure what the answer from the bank will be.This essentially is what Truss/Kwarteng have just done.
Agree with that, but think there is still an element of it reacting to fast changes with unknown consequences per se.

We hadn’t seen any ‘real’ consequences of the changes yet, as td says, just the markets reaction that then made consequences for us.
 
Making big changes based on policies that have been proven to be incorrect and not backed up by independent analysis is asking for trouble.

Imagine running a business and going to the bank and asking to borrow more money. The bank ask how you are going to pay it back and you say I am going to reduce all my prices by 25 % and make more money by selling a lot more product. 'Oh, by the way I haven't done any research on how this work but I am sure it will.' I am pretty sure what the answer from the bank will be.This essentially is what Truss/Kwarteng have just done.
Spot on bollieboy and very good analogy. Listening to James Heapey this morning on Sky News he confirmed thst all the cabinet were in agreement to the Growth Plan (mini budget) before it was formally announced, did nobody ask how the fcuk are going to pay for it.

What l find staggering, and having worked with the MoD and knowing the hoops they have to go through before decisions can be made, is that this mini budget was put together on the back of a fag pocket without any governance around it and completely out of process eg the OBR and you wonder why the markets wobbled!
 
It's interesting how we were told that Corbyn spooked 'the markets' and now it turns out that at the other end of the spectrum, Truss spooks 'the markets'

Essentially, it would appear that 'the markets' rule out anything on either side of the political spectrum that doesn't resemble a status quo.

This, do we actually live in a democracy or do we live in a dictatorship of the markets?

I'm the last person to defend Ms Truss's ideological viewpoint BUT... at the same time, it troubles me that we appear to be stuck in a rut where we do the same thing forever because of invisible, unelected, faceless forces that have more influence than anything else...

Discuss:
Is it market being spooked, or market manipulation by a few very rich and greedy traders?
 
After witnessing her pork markets "spoof but it wasn't" speech how on earth did she get the PM job. Something is very fishy on that front, she was ambitious and dumb, so far promoted beyond her abilities its staggering. Dark forces at play? Who knows, but it certainly suits Russia to see instability through the West, China will love it. None of it made sense, dyed in the wool tories should have voted Sunak with the vision of cuts and budgetary constraints not someone who was promising to chuck money about like the confetti. Cummings had a nickname for her (hand grenade) how apt.
Looking at her face yesterday, it was weird to see how someone who clearly has a massive lack of awareness suddenly became aware that she's been played and spat out.
 
After witnessing her pork markets "spoof but it wasn't" speech how on earth did she get the PM job. Something is very fishy on that front, she was ambitious and dumb, so far promoted beyond her abilities its staggering. Dark forces at play? Who knows, but it certainly suits Russia to see instability through the West, China will love it. None of it made sense, dyed in the wool tories should have voted Sunak with the vision of cuts and budgetary constraints not someone who was promising to chuck money about like the confetti. Cummings had a nickname for her (hand grenade) how apt.
Looking at her face yesterday, it was weird to see how someone who clearly has a massive lack of awareness suddenly became aware that she's been played and spat out.
Ye I don’t get that. Maybe they thought Sunak would struggle to get elected at a GE due to his wife’s financial debacle, and was he caught up in some covid fib too 🤷‍♀️ can‘t remember now. Or am I thinking of that video where he admitted to not knowing any of the working class 🤨

It didn’t make sense to me at all.
 
Ye I don’t get that. Maybe they thought Sunak would struggle to get elected at a GE due to his wife’s financial debacle, and was he caught up in some covid fib too 🤷‍♀️ can‘t remember now. Or am I thinking of that video where he admitted to not knowing any of the working class 🤨

It didn’t make sense to me at all.
Sunak was also seen at stabbing Johnson in the back and I forgot about his wife's tax affairs
 
On the plus side, we’ve dropped the ‘Build Back Better’ slogan they kept promoting during lockdown and restrictions 👍🏼
"Don't bother building back" 🤣

Is it market being spooked, or market manipulation by a few very rich and greedy traders?

Is there a difference ultimately? I wonder if we want to believe the latter as it's in a way more explicable than being controlled by the algorithms and graphs of the market itself.
 
Spot on bollieboy and very good analogy. Listening to James Heapey this morning on Sky News he confirmed thst all the cabinet were in agreement to the Growth Plan (mini budget) before it was formally announced, did nobody ask how the fcuk are going to pay for it.

What l find staggering, and having worked with the MoD and knowing the hoops they have to go through before decisions can be made, is that this mini budget was put together on the back of a fag pocket without any governance around it and completely out of process eg the OBR and you wonder why the markets wobbled!

Sacked the top treasury official, dodged the OBR, and appeared to be in such a scurrying rush to get their mini budget out after the Queen’s funeral.
I assume this was to try to avoid jumping through some of those hoops because they were worried they would be stopped in their tracks before they could release it?
 
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"Don't bother building back" 🤣



Is there a difference ultimately? I wonder if we want to believe the latter as it's in a way more explicable than being controlled by the algorithms and graphs of the market itself.
They have form
 
They have form
They do, yeah, but again, I wonder if like the way it was perhaps more comforting to believe that Covid came from a nasty lab on purpose than it was to realise that humans are fragile and random shit happens, we're giving too much play to the idea of human control in all of this.

I suppose what I'm saying is this - it's like being in the Soviet Union (i.e. stuck on the same course no matter what) but instead of a politburo of old fellas coming up with the rules, it's a literally faceless and unfathomable system that dictates... In the Soviet Union, a few people benefited from that too I suppose.

I dunno. I might be talking shite...
 
It's interesting how we were told that Corbyn spooked 'the markets' and now it turns out that at the other end of the spectrum, Truss spooks 'the markets'

Essentially, it would appear that 'the markets' rule out anything on either side of the political spectrum that doesn't resemble a status quo.

This, do we actually live in a democracy or do we live in a dictatorship of the markets?

I'm the last person to defend Ms Truss's ideological viewpoint BUT... at the same time, it troubles me that we appear to be stuck in a rut where we do the same thing forever because of invisible, unelected, faceless forces that have more influence than anything else...

Discuss:
This might kick me off into a bit of a rant, even more than crap refs and Brexit, but ill try not to.

Its an interesting concept the dictatorship of the markets. I've long felt that economics was the tail wagging the governmental policy dog. Markets are the flea on the tail of the dog which somehow manages to garner enough leverage to wag the tail for the dog.

The markets are largely perceptional, in that value is determined by what people believe constitutes value. I've written quite a lot in the past about how we live in a perception economy. If we all start getting the heeby-jeebies about the markets then the markets fall if we are confident then they rise. The fact that "the markets" are fundamentally disconnected from the companies, corporations and states that they are trading and securing against. As an example, the tweet by one of the Kardashians about the logo of a tech company wiped two billion or so off of its market value. That tells us that firstly the tech company was overvalued, because a throw away and mostly illiterate tweet about a companies logo should not affect its valuation unless the valuation is entirely perceptional.

The disconnection of the markets can be very well illustrated by (at the time) unexplained recent spikes and drops in several market sectors and currencies. The ultimate explanation was automated investment bots, which see a price rise or fall and then either buy or sell, because they do it very rapidly it creates a chain reaction. Each time this has happened the solution has been the off switch, but when most retail investing (according to Forrester) is now done through automated platform using bots or others forms of AI. but we see the same thing with high profile investors, if Warren Buffet or lately Elon Musk puts money into a stock it will go up as individual and institutional investors all chase whatever they think Buffet, Musk et al might be on to. In most cases they are at best playing hunches in many cases they are possibly manipulating the markets.

This gets me to what was widely reported about Truss and Kwarteng meeting those who had taken a massive short on sterling. It may be actual manipulation of the markets with Truss and Kwarteng literally blowing up the economy on behalf of their backers, or simply that their backers having the ability to influence naïve and not very bright politicians used them to that purpose (in either case a wider investigation should be taking place). Reap a couple of billion in the process whilst creating trillions of pounds worth of damage to ordinary working peoples finances.

Moving out of the perception economy, and back towards real value is difficult because all the pain of doing that falls onto working people, with (ever riskier) mortgages, and pensions and bills to pay. I've modelled the scenarios in the past for a variety of moves from perceptions to some form of reality and there isn't one of them where actual financial pain isn't felt by a vast majority of the population with attendant knock on effects, in all the scenarios (and I've had help from actual macro-financial economics people) where I model to protect working people the elites at the top of tree would only ever feel perceptional pain (ironic i know). One of the Russian oligarchs that we used to work for lost about 3 billion dollars in the 2008 crash which was about 60% of his reported wealth - did it physically affect him - not one iota; he didn't have to sell any of his many homes, or his yacht, or either of his private jets, he was still able to acquire more than 2 billion in financing for numerous projects he had where he swept up then low value assets. It did however give him the excuse to tighten the belt at his many companies making thousands of people redundant and cancelling contracts with suppliers who also made thousands of people redundant.

A dictatorship of the markets is an interesting concept on another level. My own hypothesis is that the current perception economy is slowly moving to a control economy, where key players literally control the markets that they inhabit, forcing out competition. Tech, energy, banking and international transport are all either partially monopolised/ du / tri-opolised or they are co-operative competition, ie barely competitive and smaller innovative players are kept out through a number of means, stagnating the market. I had never given much thought to the markets themselves being another of the control mechanisms, but having thought about it there is a case where the main players in any market sector will be protected by the markets and its ability to swing economic response which then wags the government to its bidding, and additionally creates the perception of dynamic markets, and reduces the perception of risk whilst at the same time increasing systemic risk. Currently the markets are simply a giant ponzi scheme, but so much is tied into it we cannot have it crash down.

I may have to steal the idea of "dictatorship of the markets (copyright MCLF / td53)" because I think there is something bigger in this.
 
They do, yeah, but again, I wonder if like the way it was perhaps more comforting to believe that Covid came from a nasty lab on purpose than it was to realise that humans are fragile and random shit happens, we're giving too much play to the idea of human control in all of this.

I suppose what I'm saying is this - it's like being in the Soviet Union (i.e. stuck on the same course no matter what) but instead of a politburo of old fellas coming up with the rules, it's a literally faceless and unfathomable system that dictates... In the Soviet Union, a few people benefited from that too I suppose.

I dunno. I might be talking shite...
Don't think you are talking shite, the whole global economy is like a huge snowball gathering more and more pace down a particular path, the various crashes we have seen haven't actually diverted the path of the snowball at all its just the collateral damage that the snowball creates on its inevitable journey. The safe path for the snowball was passed around 35 years ago. The only outcome is that the markets eventually eat themselves to oblivion, and there is some decent evidence that it is already underway.
 
This might kick me off into a bit of a rant, even more than crap refs and Brexit, but ill try not to.

Its an interesting concept the dictatorship of the markets. I've long felt that economics was the tail wagging the governmental policy dog. Markets are the flea on the tail of the dog which somehow manages to garner enough leverage to wag the tail for the dog.

The markets are largely perceptional, in that value is determined by what people believe constitutes value. I've written quite a lot in the past about how we live in a perception economy. If we all start getting the heeby-jeebies about the markets then the markets fall if we are confident then they rise. The fact that "the markets" are fundamentally disconnected from the companies, corporations and states that they are trading and securing against. As an example, the tweet by one of the Kardashians about the logo of a tech company wiped two billion or so off of its market value. That tells us that firstly the tech company was overvalued, because a throw away and mostly illiterate tweet about a companies logo should not affect its valuation unless the valuation is entirely perceptional.

The disconnection of the markets can be very well illustrated by (at the time) unexplained recent spikes and drops in several market sectors and currencies. The ultimate explanation was automated investment bots, which see a price rise or fall and then either buy or sell, because they do it very rapidly it creates a chain reaction. Each time this has happened the solution has been the off switch, but when most retail investing (according to Forrester) is now done through automated platform using bots or others forms of AI. but we see the same thing with high profile investors, if Warren Buffet or lately Elon Musk puts money into a stock it will go up as individual and institutional investors all chase whatever they think Buffet, Musk et al might be on to. In most cases they are at best playing hunches in many cases they are possibly manipulating the markets.

This gets me to what was widely reported about Truss and Kwarteng meeting those who had taken a massive short on sterling. It may be actual manipulation of the markets with Truss and Kwarteng literally blowing up the economy on behalf of their backers, or simply that their backers having the ability to influence naïve and not very bright politicians used them to that purpose (in either case a wider investigation should be taking place). Reap a couple of billion in the process whilst creating trillions of pounds worth of damage to ordinary working peoples finances.

Moving out of the perception economy, and back towards real value is difficult because all the pain of doing that falls onto working people, with (ever riskier) mortgages, and pensions and bills to pay. I've modelled the scenarios in the past for a variety of moves from perceptions to some form of reality and there isn't one of them where actual financial pain isn't felt by a vast majority of the population with attendant knock on effects, in all the scenarios (and I've had help from actual macro-financial economics people) where I model to protect working people the elites at the top of tree would only ever feel perceptional pain (ironic i know). One of the Russian oligarchs that we used to work for lost about 3 billion dollars in the 2008 crash which was about 60% of his reported wealth - did it physically affect him - not one iota; he didn't have to sell any of his many homes, or his yacht, or either of his private jets, he was still able to acquire more than 2 billion in financing for numerous projects he had where he swept up then low value assets. It did however give him the excuse to tighten the belt at his many companies making thousands of people redundant and cancelling contracts with suppliers who also made thousands of people redundant.

A dictatorship of the markets is an interesting concept on another level. My own hypothesis is that the current perception economy is slowly moving to a control economy, where key players literally control the markets that they inhabit, forcing out competition. Tech, energy, banking and international transport are all either partially monopolised/ du / tri-opolised or they are co-operative competition, ie barely competitive and smaller innovative players are kept out through a number of means, stagnating the market. I had never given much thought to the markets themselves being another of the control mechanisms, but having thought about it there is a case where the main players in any market sector will be protected by the markets and its ability to swing economic response which then wags the government to its bidding, and additionally creates the perception of dynamic markets, and reduces the perception of risk whilst at the same time increasing systemic risk. Currently the markets are simply a giant ponzi scheme, but so much is tied into it we cannot have it crash down.

I may have to steal the idea of "dictatorship of the markets (copyright MCLF / td53)" because I think there is something bigger in this.

I think it's probably a term I've got from Mark Fisher. Possibly. I don't know. I'm sure it's not mine.
 
The policies of Truss and Corbyn were just equally shit. So it shouldn’t really come as any particular surprise to anyone that they wouldn’t go down well.

I think a few red faced Tory Party members and their spurned Think Tank backers might be using the ‘Globalist Elite’ conspiracy theory as a means to hide their own blushes TBH.
 
It feels almost pre-conceived. Deliver a shit show of a budget based on an out dated and mainly ridiculed Trickle down supply side economic theory.

Banker friends cash in and make an absolute fortune in a stagnant and poor trading market (where’s this years bunce going to actually come from…. We need a run on the pound in some way?).

Unsustainable so of course it will have to be repealed weeks later… step in Hunt to do just that, return it back to previous position less the massive profit to their trader friends.

The profit gap to trader friends will be made up by scrapping energy support in April and further reduced public spending.

Clever manipulation of the market for personal gain by a small number of private individuals or just pure coincidence?
You're assuming malice where incompetence will suffice
 
Who knew paying everyone to sit on their arses for two years then move seamlessly into a proxy war with Russia would end up so costly? 😄
 
We have to face up to the reality that for recent decades we have run the nation on borrowed money. Simply, the government spend more than we give the government.

For this reason we are reliant on the ‘kindness of strangers’. In other words investors into UK plc. They chose to lend the UK billions (trillions) of funds in return for government backed IOUs. This gives them a high degree of safety and also liquidity, both of which look good when making up a slice of their portfolios.

When we choose to continue to overspend, we continue to be reliant on their opinion of our ‘credibility’. When the figures don’t add up, our risk rises and the cash costs more. And the vicious spiral worsens.

It would seem that lockdowns, furloughs, hundreds of billions of borrowing all come at a price.

If you don’t like the impact of high interest rates, then you accept lower public spending for all or live with a high tax nation.
 
We have to face up to the reality that for recent decades we have run the nation on borrowed money. Simply, the government spend more than we give the government.

For this reason we are reliant on the ‘kindness of strangers’. In other words investors into UK plc. They chose to lend the UK billions (trillions) of funds in return for government backed IOUs. This gives them a high degree of safety and also liquidity, both of which look good when making up a slice of their portfolios.

When we choose to continue to overspend, we continue to be reliant on their opinion of our ‘credibility’. When the figures don’t add up, our risk rises and the cash costs more. And the vicious spiral worsens.

It would seem that lockdowns, furloughs, hundreds of billions of borrowing all come at a price.

If you don’t like the impact of high interest rates, then you accept lower public spending for all or live with a high tax nation.
Or just for once get those US corporates to actually pay corporation tax and not pass off the old “we pay lots of staff and their employer tax” blag they get away with.

Funnily enough I told HMRC that I pay the same just proportionate on terms of employees so could I have the same rate of corp tax as those ‘overseas’ companies trading here……?

Er no.
 
Or just for once get those US corporates to actually pay corporation tax and not pass off the old “we pay lots of staff and their employer tax” blag they get away with.

Funnily enough I told HMRC that I pay the same just proportionate on terms of employees so could I have the same rate of corp tax as those ‘overseas’ companies trading here……?

Er no.
As I implied, increase the government ‘take’ to a level which doesn’t continually increase government debt.
 
and not backed up by independent analysis is asking for trouble.
I think that is what spooked them, any forecast would've helped. When it then came out that the OBR had offered a forecast, despite the Chancellor saying there was no time, they doubled down on uncertainty. Don't let this corrupt coterie rewrite history, this was a very specific British problem, for which those with mortgages and pensions will be paying for a long time.
 
Or, without the clever wordplay, the Tufton Street gang are traitors to the UK. Their exposure needs to take place on mainstream TV and the guilty need to be imprisoned for 20 years each.
 
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