Shit happens....literally

Costero Poderoso said:
Ill second 66AAT. The initial statement is correct and fundamentally flawed at the same time. Perception of value (in moetary terms anyway) is viral, if enough people believe then the value is extractable, however its only extractable for a small minority.

its a very true statement that the markets are not rational. however its not irrationality that drives the markets but faith in the market's rationality, and the presuppositions inherent in that faith.

if you are in Warren buffets position then almost anything you buy at 50p can be turned into a quid in the not too distant future because the markets simply react to him and other major investors. Financial regulations underpin that benefit as well.
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You are making some assumptions and also not (in my opinion) giving the full story.

The market is irrational short term and logical long term.

I don’t follow Warren Buffet exactly as I don’t always believe in his purchases. The market doesn’t follow him maybe as close as you think - although many do.

I believe in buying a great company where the share price is at best 50% of financial value.

The key to investing is - can you beat the S&P 500 index over many years - if you can’t (and Warren Buffet hasn’t recently) - just buy a tracker fund and forget about it!!!
 
seasideone said:
You are making some assumptions and also not (in my opinion) giving the full story.

The market is irrational short term and logical long term.

I don’t follow Warren Buffet exactly as I don’t always believe in his purchases. The market doesn’t follow him maybe as close as you think - although many do.

I believe in buying a great company where the share price is at best 50% of financial value.

The key to investing is - can you beat the S&P 500 index over many years - if you can’t (and Warren Buffet hasn’t recently) - just buy a tracker fund and forget about it!!!
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The market being irrational short term and logical long term is about as presuppositional a statement as you could make.

My interest in markets is academic i leave them well alone financially. i find your opinions interesting because it seems you think you understand them and it may be that you do, you're an investing genius worth an absolute fortune, but many of the things you state are very typical of those who think they understand the markets, and i know a lot of people who think they understand the markets but ultimately are always very surprised when there are failures or massive successes that they missed out on.

I get that even investment geniuses will be wrong from time to time. There are several instances of random picks, and do nothing strategies that have outperformed the S&P over decades. Many US senators and members of Congress have funds that have seriously outperformed the markets often by factors, there was an interview with a fund manager who simply tracked the stock buying of several US members of congress and the senate. At that level analysis of a companies value is meaningless.

Also a report by forester about 4 years ago claimed that 90% of all retail investing is carried out by some form of bot based automation or AI, again the system is reading trends in buying patterns of stocks and making decsions on buying, not buying or selling much quicker than traditional human decision makers as its leverage. Again it points to analyisis of trading companies being irrelevant to stock purchase and stock value. Purchases are driving purchases. Similar happens in forex where automated systems are trading currency, but in at least three instances there have been blips of value of several currencies that could not be explained but were stopped by turning off the servers that were making purchases.

These types of things are not irrational whether short or long term, they are perfectly rational when viewed in the persepective of, permitted insider trading (mem congress and sens), or automated purchasing patterns which by their progamming have to follow logic. Tesco for nearly twenty years was being overvalued and required if i remember correctly was a 50 or 60% revaluation of the company. Everything that went into the overvaluations was rational, based on a presupposed set of evaluations of data that sets the value, the basic data was at fault, even today the basic understanding of the data that led to the overvaluation is considerd to be the right interpretation of the data.

The thing that im trying to say somewhat long windedly (although its difficult to do it short windedly (breezily maybe)), is i dont think that anyone can properly understand the markets, because they are too random and far too easily subject to manipulation (deliberate or not) or just simple misunderstanding of cause and effect.
 
Costero Poderoso said:
The market being irrational short term and logical long term is about as presuppositional a statement as you could make.

My interest in markets is academic i leave them well alone financially. i find your opinions interesting because it seems you think you understand them and it may be that you do, you're an investing genius worth an absolute fortune, but many of the things you state are very typical of those who think they understand the markets, and i know a lot of people who think they understand the markets but ultimately are always very surprised when there are failures or massive successes that they missed out on.

I get that even investment geniuses will be wrong from time to time. There are several instances of random picks, and do nothing strategies that have outperformed the S&P over decades. Many US senators and members of Congress have funds that have seriously outperformed the markets often by factors, there was an interview with a fund manager who simply tracked the stock buying of several US members of congress and the senate. At that level analysis of a companies value is meaningless.

Also a report by forester about 4 years ago claimed that 90% of all retail investing is carried out by some form of bot based automation or AI, again the system is reading trends in buying patterns of stocks and making decsions on buying, not buying or selling much quicker than traditional human decision makers as its leverage. Again it points to analyisis of trading companies being irrelevant to stock purchase and stock value. Purchases are driving purchases. Similar happens in forex where automated systems are trading currency, but in at least three instances there have been blips of value of several currencies that could not be explained but were stopped by turning off the servers that were making purchases.

These types of things are not irrational whether short or long term, they are perfectly rational when viewed in the persepective of, permitted insider trading (mem congress and sens), or automated purchasing patterns which by their progamming have to follow logic. Tesco for nearly twenty years was being overvalued and required if i remember correctly was a 50 or 60% revaluation of the company. Everything that went into the overvaluations was rational, based on a presupposed set of evaluations of data that sets the value, the basic data was at fault, even today the basic understanding of the data that led to the overvaluation is considerd to be the right interpretation of the data.

The thing that im trying to say somewhat long windedly (although its difficult to do it short windedly (breezily maybe)), is i dont think that anyone can properly understand the markets, because they are too random and far too easily subject to manipulation (deliberate or not) or just simple misunderstanding of cause and effect.
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Wow - I agree you do not have a clue when it comes to the markets 👍
 
I once worked at a sewage farm. The pay was crap. I had to work overtime to make up for the poor pay...I was on time and a turd

Edit: Sorry
 
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