Pound tanking

ElBurroSinNombre said:
I think that many will find it difficult to 'chill out and ignore it' when their pensions and / or their homes are at a material risk as they are at this moment. Or when they struggle to have enough money to eat or heat their homes as many do at the moment.

I'm glad that you find it so amusing, although the 'I'm alright Jack' attitude does make you seem rather callous.

Politicians are not all the same. I am in my 50's and have never, in my adult life, seen a financial crisis that has been caused by a government as this one has been.
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My point is, there is absolutely nothing you can do about it until 2024 and then you can cast your vote in a GE. Not that that is going to make any difference.
So in the meantime, ranting and raving on an obscure message board has absolutely zero effect. And anyone who thinks Labour, or any party for that matter, is going to come in, wave a magic wand and suddenly everything's ok is going to be very disappointed.
I'm old enough now to realise that the majority of politicians are self serving arseholes. In your opinion politicians are not all the same.
We'll have to agree to disagree on that one.
And no I'm not callous at all. Of course I'm sorry for anyone who's struggling. If anyone I know was seriously struggling I'd be the first to offer help. But at the same time I'm entitled to laugh at opinions on this board. Keeping a sense of humour does help sometimes.
 
Still think traders are making a fortune out of this as they did with ERM by manipulating the market, and this should be made illegal.
They currently can line their pockets with obscene amounts of money, while screwing the country and therefore all taxpayers.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
My point is, there is absolutely nothing you can do about it until 2024 and then you can cast your vote in a GE. Not that that is going to make any difference.
So in the meantime, ranting and raving on an obscure message board has absolutely zero effect. And anyone who thinks Labour, or any party for that matter, is going to come in, wave a magic wand and suddenly everything's ok is going to be very disappointed.
I'm old enough now to realise that the majority of politicians are self serving arseholes. In your opinion politicians are not all the same.
We'll have to agree to disagree on that one.
And no I'm not callous at all. Of course I'm sorry for anyone who's struggling. If anyone I know was seriously struggling I'd be the first to offer help. But at the same time I'm entitled to laugh at opinions on this board. Keeping a sense of humour does help sometimes.
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Politicians are not all the same.
For instance the vast majority of UK chancellors would never consider releasing a statement full of un-costed spending pledges that had the potential to destabilise the whole economy.
This chancellor has done precisely that and it's effects are far reaching. In the meantime, the chancellor's old boss (who Kwartang receives 20k a year from) has made a fortune from the chancellor's inept actions. Some bankers have described Kwartang as 'a useful idiot'. I am certain, for instance, that Rachel Reeves (who has previously worked for the BoE) would never do anything like this.

You are very passive. Of course we can do something about it. For instance we can lobby our MPs, many of whom (from all parties) are horrified by what the government are doing. We can sign petitions, we can protest. And we can seek to influence others, for instance by posting on message boards.

You may want to pretend that everything is going to be OK and your complacency suggests that you are insulated from the effects of the chancellor's actions. But the current crisis is very serious and the chancellor has made things a lot worse for millions of ordinary people. It is once in a lifetime stuff and I will do what I can, in my own small way, to put pressure on the government to change course.
 
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L’étranger said:
That’s the narrative that the right are trying to push to deflect blame. I just listened to Rees-Mogg on Today - he said the recent market turmoil was nothing to do with the recent budget statement at all - it was all the fault of the BoE.
It’s a bit like blaming the failures of Brexit on the remainers. Never our fault.
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lol I'm a lifelong leftie. I am afraid the markets sniff out bullshit and all of this money printing is finally coming home to roost. It's a global issue. Demonstrably.

I'm not saying the govt aren't shit because they are. Or that Brexit isn't a contributor (I voted remain) but if you're going down the path of blaming the Tories (only) then you're filed along the swivel-eyed loons on the right who still try and pin 2007 on the Labour Party (only).

Does that appear a balanced and fair post?
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
Politicians are not all the same.
For instance the vast majority of UK chancellors would never consider releasing a statement full of un-costed spending pledges that had the potential to destabilise the whole economy.
This chancellor has done precisely that and it's effects are far reaching. In the meantime, the chancellor's old boss (who Kwartang receives 20k a year from) has made a fortune from the chancellor's inept actions. Some bankers have described Kwartang as 'a useful idiot'. I doubt, for instance, that Rachel Reeves (who worked for the BoE) would ever do anything like this.

You are very passive. Of course we can do something about it. For instance we can lobby our MPs, many of whom (from all parties) are horrified by what the government are doing. We can sign petitions, we can protest. And we can seek to influence others, for instance by posting on message boards.

You may want to pretend that everything is going to be OK and your complacency suggests that you are insulated from the effects of the chancellor's actions. But the current crisis is very serious and the chancellor has made things a lot worse for millions of ordinary people. It is once in a lifetime stuff and I will do what I can, in my own small way, to put pressure on the government to change course.
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I don't pretend everything is going to be ok. We're clearly in a bad position and you're totally wrong in assuming I'm insulated from it all.
The reason I'm not in serious trouble is because of the hard work I've put in over the years, which is now standing me in good stead.
But I'm far from insulated from it.
I realise there are people who are in real trouble and I do feel desperately sorry for them.
But I really can't see the point in getting my knickers in a twist and getting so wound up about it.
I just prefer to try and carry on enjoying life as best I can under whatever circumstances life throws at me. That includes the current shit storm.
And I'll just repeat what I said in my previous post. We'll have to agree to disagree on politicians.
 
rockontommy said:
lol I'm a lifelong leftie. I am afraid the markets sniff out bullshit and all of this money printing is finally coming home to roost. It's a global issue. Demonstrably.

I'm not saying the govt aren't shit because they are. Or that Brexit isn't a contributor (I voted remain) but if you're going down the path of blaming the Tories (only) then you're filed along the swivel-eyed loons on the right who still try and pin 2007 on the Labour Party (only).

Does that appear a balanced and fair post?
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I haven’t said I’m blaming the Tories only, although it’s obvious to all but the most blinkered that the recent market turmoil was severely exacerbated by the utterances from the chancellor and the government’s lack of credibility.
My comments were directed more at those such as Rees-Mogg who claim that the crisis is all the making of the BoE and nothing at all to do with government incompetence, not your good self!
 
L’étranger said:
I haven’t said I’m blaming the Tories only, although it’s obvious to all but the most blinkered that the recent market turmoil was severely exacerbated by the utterances from the chancellor and the government’s lack of credibility.
My comments were directed more at those such as Rees-Mogg who claim that the crisis is all the making of the BoE and nothing at all to do with government incompetence, not your good self!
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There's little doubt that the Chancellor's policy created turmoil in the financial markets with its lack of transparency, but the BofE can't simply absolve itself of blame when it refused to raise interest rates in line with the US. Rates have been kept artificially low for some time and the Bank's holier than thou deflection of blame needs to be looked at.
 
tommytwojags said:
There's little doubt that the Chancellor's policy created turmoil in the financial markets with its lack of transparency, but the BofE can't simply absolve itself of blame when it refused to raise interest rates in line with the US. Rates have been kept artificially low for some time and the Bank's holier than thou deflection of blame needs to be looked at.
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The question to ask is why have interest rates been kept artificially very low for over two decades. When you answer that question you get some understanding of who ultimately benefits.

Truss and Kwarmi provided the pin to prick the bubble but The BoE have to take a fair amount of criticism on the chin as well, not just for not raising interest rates now but for not tracking interest rates properly since it became independent. The problem is their agenda as an independent institution is not necessarily aligned with government economic policy, their actual role is financial management and ultimately protecting the banking system which is almost always a short term task. Economic policy should be long term but with the likes of who has been in power in the last twenty years it has become increasingly short term. In most respects the BoE is the tail wagging the dog, but its the same with the Fed and the ECB.

The BoE should never have been made independent.

Some of the issues around European federalism are specifically driven by the "independent" short term financial management needs of the ECB which i think is likely to blow up sooner rather than later as well.
 
tommytwojags said:
There's little doubt that the Chancellor's policy created turmoil in the financial markets with its lack of transparency, but the BofE can't simply absolve itself of blame when it refused to raise interest rates in line with the US. Rates have been kept artificially low for some time and the Bank's holier than thou deflection of blame needs to be looked at.
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Hmmm, , now do I trust the actions of the BoE more, or those of Truss and Quasi - One side has been playing this game a long time, the other looks fairly clueless using back of a fagpacket sums. The worldwide markets seem to know too.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
I

I couldn't give a toss about Government strategy. And neither could I give a toss who's in power, Labour or Conservative.
It won't make any difference, they're all lying, self serving pigs with their snouts in the same trough.
But if you believe it does make a difference then fair enough that's your opinion.
Carry on ranting and getting your knickers in a twist if you wish. I'll just carry on laughing and not caring.
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Do you suppose that the current dog's breakfast occurred by chance? A twist of fate, perhaps? It is precisely because the people in charge do make a difference that (a) we are now in a situation of financial peril and (b) there are others who could be in charge and who would address it to try to improve our society for the benefit of all.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
Do you suppose that the current dog's breakfast occurred by chance? A twist of fate, perhaps? It is precisely because the people in charge do make a difference that (a) we are now in a situation of financial peril and (b) there are others who could be in charge and who would address it to try to improve our society for the benefit of all.
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I've absolutely no doubt the current situation was partly caused by the decisions the Government made.
Just like I'm absolutely sure the government didn't cause the pandemic or the invasion of Ukraine.
But there's no doubt some who seem to think they are to blame for both those
Those two events have partly caused the current economic shitstorm. The Government's decisions
have made it worse.
That's my honest opinion. And opinions are like arseholes. We've all got one.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
I've absolutely no doubt the current situation was partly caused by the decisions the Government made.
Just like I'm absolutely sure the government didn't cause the pandemic or the invasion of Ukraine.
But there's no doubt some who seem to think they are to blame for both those
Those two events have partly caused the current economic shitstorm. The Government's decisions
have made it worse.
That's my honest opinion. And opinions are like arseholes. We've all got one.
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The Government weren't to blame for the pandemic, but they made a dog's breakfast (and a financial killing for their mates) of the response. Watch This England and see the missed opportunities to reduce the death toll.
 
Wizaard said:
The Government weren't to blame for the pandemic, but they made a dog's breakfast (and a financial killing for their mates) of the response. Watch This England and see the missed opportunities to reduce the death toll.
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I don't tend to take much notice of tv series/documentaries like that Wiz, even though I quite enjoyed it.
A bit like I didn't take much notice of some of the stuff in The Crown about the Royal Family, even though what little bit I've seen of it, I quite enjoyed that too. My girlfriend on the other hand pretty much took it all as gospel.
And I totally agree with you that the Government made mistakes during the pandemic. But you could probably say that about most governments in the world, it was such an unprecedented event. Remember how we were all praising New Zealand and Australia over their hard line Covid policies . I don't hear much praise for them now.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
I don't tend to take much notice of tv series/documentaries like that Wiz, even though I quite enjoyed it.
A bit like I didn't take much notice of some of the stuff in The Crown about the Royal Family, even though what little bit I've seen of it, I quite enjoyed that too. My girlfriend on the other hand pretty much took it all as gospel.
And I totally agree with you that the Government made mistakes during the pandemic. But you could probably say that about most governments in the world, it was such an unprecedented event. Remember how we were all praising New Zealand and Australia over their hard line Covid policies . I don't hear much praise for them now.
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They've still a very low death rate though.
 
AndrewDuncanSmith said:
The country will talk its way into a recession.
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It’s not talking. Government f@@@ing business and its residents there is a simple linear cause to the current catastrophe and that is Truss and her Chancellor. We are becoming seriously dysfunctional following the philosophy of a few extremists on the right of the Tory party who have absolutely no democratic mandate.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
I don't tend to take much notice of tv series/documentaries like that Wiz, even though I quite enjoyed it.
A bit like I didn't take much notice of some of the stuff in The Crown about the Royal Family, even though what little bit I've seen of it, I quite enjoyed that too. My girlfriend on the other hand pretty much took it all as gospel.
And I totally agree with you that the Government made mistakes during the pandemic. But you could probably say that about most governments in the world, it was such an unprecedented event. Remember how we were all praising New Zealand and Australia over their hard line Covid policies . I don't hear much praise for them now.
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Any ones in particular?
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
I

I couldn't give a toss about Government strategy. And neither could I give a toss who's in power, Labour or Conservative.
It won't make any difference, they're all lying, self serving pigs with their snouts in the same trough.
But if you believe it does make a difference then fair enough that's your opinion.
Carry on ranting and getting your knickers in a twist if you wish. I'll just carry on laughing and not caring.
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Respect your right to have that opinion. However, people letting them get away with it encourages them to think themselves untouchable. It is not a game, this is people's ability to feed and clothe their families, and put a roof over their heads that's at stake.
 
tommytwojags said:
There's little doubt that the Chancellor's policy created turmoil in the financial markets with its lack of transparency, but the BofE can't simply absolve itself of blame when it refused to raise interest rates in line with the US. Rates have been kept artificially low for some time and the Bank's holier than thou deflection of blame needs to be looked at.
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I seem to remember a thread on here discussing whether there was any point raising interest rates with the economy being so sluggish, interest rates up equals mortgages up equals inflation up. Following the US Treasury high rates makes sense for the markets, but boosts inflation.

Screwed if you do, screwed if you don't. Whereas the Chancellor had the option to put a fully costed mini budget, but chose not to. And all this from Private Eye, if true, about him being paid £20K per month from his old boss, sorry, you need to look no further for the cause of our current crisis.
 
Tangerinemoss said:
I seem to remember a thread on here discussing whether there was any point raising interest rates with the economy being so sluggish, interest rates up equals mortgages up equals inflation up. Following the US Treasury high rates makes sense for the markets, but boosts inflation.
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Partly correct.

Although the RPI measure does include mortgage costs, and is still used for some purposes, it hasn't been the target measure since 1992, first replaced by RPI-X then CPI, neither of which include mortgage interest, precisely for the reason you suggest.

The flip side is that lower interest rates, especially relative to the US, results in a lower value of the pound, which increases the cost of imported goods, particularly oil and gas (priced in US$), and that very much does lead to higher inflation.
 
No cut in public spending, continuing with the spending plans put in place by Boris, where’s the money going to come from to fund the tax cuts?
 
Lost Seasider said:
Partly correct.

Although the RPI measure does include mortgage costs, and is still used for some purposes, it hasn't been the target measure since 1992, first replaced by RPI-X then CPI, neither of which include mortgage interest, precisely for the reason you suggest.

The flip side is that lower interest rates, especially relative to the US, results in a lower value of the pound, which increases the cost of imported goods, particularly oil and gas (priced in US$), and that very much does lead to higher inflation.
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You are talking about measures of inflation, I am talking about the inflation many people face. RIC / CPI does not reflect the real world, as I'm sure you would agree. The impact on people with lower incomes, spending their income without headroom to save, is greater than those who can. The ONs study showed this clearly, despite the Telegraph running an entirely misleading headline and story.
 
Wizaard said:
They've still a very low death rate though.
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Maybe partly down to lower population, less densely packed and nowhere near as many transient people passing through there as the UK.
And all those lockdowns after lockdowns after lockdowns. What was the hidden health cost of that?
I don't think anyone can seriously claim there was a perfect way to combat Covid, or any air borne virus for that matter. Even after the event never mind during it.
 
Tangerinemoss said:
You are talking about measures of inflation, I am talking about the inflation many people face. RIC / CPI does not reflect the real world, as I'm sure you would agree. The impact on people with lower incomes, spending their income without headroom to save, is greater than those who can. The ONs study showed this clearly, despite the Telegraph running an entirely misleading headline and story.
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To an extent, it's certainly true that individuals' experience of inflation are going to depend upon their consumption patterns, and different groups are going to have very different patterns and experiences as a result, nevertheless, across the economy as a whole I'm sure it's a reasonably accurate measure of changes in the value of money over time.

More broadly, you are talking about "cost of living", which is a much vaguer term than inflation, and include things such as mortgage interest, which are not strictly a change in the value of money, and are thus not "inflation".

In terms of monetary policy, which is to say targeting CPI, higher interest rates are not directly inflationary, and tend to be anti-inflationary by indirect means, mainly via the foreign exchange effect.
 
Tangerinemoss said:
Magic money tree again 😂

Unbelievable responses from the PM today, almost as if she was intending to create further uncertainty.
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There is a magic money tree more commonly referred to as the public purse. Rich people know this full well hence the public purse was used to bail out the banks. Now if this doesn't tell you that rich people don't fund the public purse I have literally no idea how else to explain it. All successful economies are driven by a prosperous working and middle class. Rich people hate that because that means they have to compete for spending power rahter than it be handed to them direct from the state.

Remember that the next time you feel minded to sneer at poor people for being scoungers. Edit to add I don't mean you Tang.
 
Pension funds plummeting will wake up the plebs. My pension has dropped, it is worth a fair bit less that what I put in, 6 months ago it was a fair bit more. Interest rates will cripple a lot of people and despite the tories doing their best to ruin the economy, stifle business and increase bureaucracy they are considered to be more economically savvy than labour. I suppose of you're super rich that is an opinion worth promoting but the likes of brexit Dave/John from Stoke/Wigan who voted for them at the last election must surely realise they've had their pants pulled down.
 
L’étranger said:
That’s the narrative that the right are trying to push to deflect blame. I just listened to Rees-Mogg on Today - he said the recent market turmoil was nothing to do with the recent budget statement at all - it was all the fault of the BoE.
It’s a bit like blaming the failures of Brexit on the remainers. Never our fault.
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Just watched Channel 4 news, one of the editors from the Financial Times was asked what she thought of Rees Mogg saying the situation wasn't the fault of the governments mini budget, a very succinct one word answer, 'Bollocks!'
 
Yep, my pension pot has fallen by around 10% due to the markets being spooked by the mini budget. But I feel more for the young people who are trying to get on the property ladder. My niece is in the process of getting a property, but can only get a mortgage of £20k less than she could 2 weeks ago.

Watching the BBC news today, Penny Mordant was sat near the PM, and looked embarrassed to be there. Similarly glum faces on the back benches as well. I don't normally post on this forum, but I really hope the Tories can get Truss/Kwarteng to reverse the unfunded tax cuts. Every man and his dog seems to see it (IMF, economics experts etc) except for them.
 
gjr69 said:
Just watched Channel 4 news, one of the editors from the Financial Times was asked what she thought of Rees Mogg saying the situation wasn't the fault of the governments mini budget, a very succinct one word answer, 'Bollocks!'
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1580281080380211200


1922 committee was a disaster for Truss after a shit PMQs - it is being widely reported. I think she will be gone soon enough. October 31st could maybe be the day after more market turmoil following sums that don't add up or possibly Friday 14th if BoE actually stop buying government bonds as promised. Pension funds could collapse on Friday 14th only two days from now, mine included I would guess. Surely that would be the end for her.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1580281080380211200


1922 committee was a disaster for Truss after a shit PMQs - it is being widely reported. I think she will be gone soon enough. October 31st could maybe be the day after more market turmoil following sums that don't add up or possibly Friday 14th if BoE actually stop buying government bonds as promised. Pension funds could collapse on Friday 14th only two days from now, mine included I would guess. Surely that would be the end for her.
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The end of her,and the Tories moved to the sidelines for at least 5 years!
 
tommytwojags said:
N


The Tories are here until at least 2024. It doesn't matter how much you don't want that. Saying it lots of times doesn't make it any more likely.
.
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I don't disagree. Just got to hope that the current government don't do any more damage to the economy and reputation of the UK and that the sensible people in the Conservative party take control again after they lose in 2024.
I just want what's best for the UK, this adversarial politics is getting us nowhere. The people of the country have diverse views the government should reflect that. Hopefully Labour change the voting system and bring in a more representative system where we can have the best brains working for the benefit of the majority of the population.
First past the post has brought us the worst of the Conservative party acting in self interest for a tiny minority of the population.
 
tommytwojags said:
N


The Tories are here until at least 2024. It doesn't matter how much you don't want that. Saying it lots of times doesn't make it any more likely.
.
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I'm not sure that is true. Truss is too extreme for many Tory MPs. Some will not vote for whatever budget she ever bothers to put before the House. That will lead to a vote of no confidence.
 
Pound gains ground on rumours that the mini budget will be abandoned. Kwarteng and Truss completely deny it.

I'll give it 24 hours before there's a complete u turn.

Arrogance and incompetence are a dangerous combination and we've had years of it. Theresa May looks like she knew what she was doing compared to everyone since, that's how shit they are.
 
Wizaard said:
Pound gains ground on rumours that the mini budget will be abandoned. Kwarteng and Truss completely deny it.

I'll give it 24 hours before there's a complete u turn.

Arrogance and incompetence are a dangerous combination and we've had years of it. Theresa May looks like she knew what she was doing compared to everyone since, that's how shit they are.
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I never thought Theresa May was that bad. She was more professional and had much more attention to detail than either Johnson or Truss.
She just came across as a bit staid and conventional and wasn't decisive enough. Also made a mistake in calling a GE when she did.
But give me those traits and the odd mistake over the previous or current incumbent any day of the week.
I'm pretty sure she wouldn't have presided over this shitstorm.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
I never thought Theresa May was that bad. She was more professional and had much more attention to detail than either Johnson or Truss.
She just came across as a bit staid and conventional and wasn't decisive enough. Also made a mistake in calling a GE when she did.
But give me those traits and the odd mistake over the previous or current incumbent any day of the week.
I'm pretty sure she wouldn't have presided over this shitstorm.
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Agreed. Although she was a disaster as a Home Secretary.
 
We’ve had a few shockers in the Chancellor role in the past decade.

Kwasi trumps them all in as much as being an ideology driven asset stripping leech even beyond that of his predecessors.

Boris and Rishi at least being popularists, would have spotted the obvious electorate outcry and not even attempted this mini budget. The last ideologist being Thatcher knew that there was enough potential in the economy to get away with her blatant attacks.

She would never have attempted a supply side coup on the back of a world wide recession and collapsed demand. US and Europe to a degree were in a recovery position when Maggie got ideologist in her supply side gamble.

Kwasi and Liz either just didn’t have the economic understanding of this is a direct slash and burn gamble when you know you are handing the reins to the opposition soon.
Leave Labour with an unrecoverable mess and then 5 years after state “told you so” and grab it back
 
Walthamstow_Seasider said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1580517767299547136
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“Brace for the mother of all U-Turns on the mini budget today. A friendly person in the know is advising us to steer clear of the media today to avoid the explosion. We wouldn’t want to look silly by tomorrow.”

"U-Turn talk reminds me of this from a former minister I quoted on BBC Newsnight last night: “It is checkmate for the PM. Either she embarks on a screeching U turn on her tax cuts, which means she is finished politically, or she does nothing and then we are finished politically”

This reporter is either really really good or miles off the mark. Since none of his predictions appears to have any basis in reality at the close of play today and the Chancellor says there will be no u-turn going forward it looks like the latter.
 
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Chunkylad said:
We’ve had a few shockers in the Chancellor role in the past decade.

Kwasi trumps them all in as much as being an ideology driven asset stripping leech even beyond that of his predecessors.

Boris and Rishi at least being popularists, would have spotted the obvious electorate outcry and not even attempted this mini budget. The last ideologist being Thatcher knew that there was enough potential in the economy to get away with her blatant attacks.

She would never have attempted a supply side coup on the back of a world wide recession and collapsed demand. US and Europe to a degree were in a recovery position when Maggie got ideologist in her supply side gamble.

Kwasi and Liz either just didn’t have the economic understanding of this is a direct slash and burn gamble when you know you are handing the reins to the opposition soon.
Leave Labour with an unrecoverable mess and then 5 years after state “told you so” and grab it back
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This is why the country needs constitutional and electoral reform. If Labour do get a majority I hope they enact positive changes to the system.
 
Kurtan said:
This is why the country needs constitutional and electoral reform. If Labour do get a majority I hope they enact positive changes to the system.
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It would make a lot of sense as in most areas our vote doesn’t make any difference and also bring in compulsory voting
 
How many months did it take for the alleged best brains ,business leaders and the richest 4% to work out the best leader for our nations wellbeing 🤔 A class of infant‘s could have done a far better job !
 
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