Let’s hope this local lady is found safe

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BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Why no plan for the dog though?

The husband said that Willow was like their third kid and they were both clearly devoted to the dog... .
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I can’t say about that Bifster. It is noted though that cleaning your house or room is an action often carried out prior to suicide. The opposite of nesting when you are pregnant I guess just before giving birth.
I can’t answer the dog situation. If she was as troubled as we now think then her own logic may not be clear to us. Or maybe it’s clearer than we can see.

Her partner definitely stated though that it was very unusual that morning in that he came down and all the jobs had been done and there was none of the usual chaos.
That tells us that the day started off very differently before Nicola even got to the river which rules out abduction even more I feel.
 
Lytham_fy8 said:
Good point, there's no way a dog lover is leaving their dog to wander around, you'd take it home.
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Not necessarily if your mind is out of balance, which is what it is if you’re on the verge of suicide.

And any parent who kills themselves is ultimately leaving their kids behind which you could say, no loving parent would. But obviously they do.
 
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Lala said:
I can’t say about that Bifster. It is noted though that cleaning your house or room is an action often carried out prior to suicide. The opposite of nesting when you are pregnant I guess just before giving birth.
I can’t answer the dog situation. If she was as troubled as we now think then her own logic may not be clear to us. Or maybe it’s clearer than we can see.

Her partner definitely stated though that it was very unusual that morning in that he came down and all the jobs had been done and there was none of the usual chaos.
That tells us that the day started off very differently before Nicola even got to the river which rules out abduction even more I feel.
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Cleaning house, whether literally or tidying up your affairs is certainly a pre-cursor to suicide. I know.
 
Lytham_fy8 said:
Good point, there's no way a dog lover is leaving their dog to wander around, you'd take it home.
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Was it not a contained area where she’d know another dog walker would likely find..also if your contemplating going in water your hardly gonna be in the best rational place I guess…
 
Lala said:
I can’t say about that Bifster. It is noted though that cleaning your house or room is an action often carried out prior to suicide. The opposite of nesting when you are pregnant I guess just before giving birth.
I can’t answer the dog situation. If she was as troubled as we now think then her own logic may not be clear to is. Or maybe it’s clearer than we can see.

Her partner definitely stated though that it was very unusual that morning in that he came down and all the jobs had been done and there was none of the usual chaos.
That tells us that the day started off very differently before Nicola even got to the river which rules out abduction even more I feel.
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When you look at it realistically suicide is the most likely outcome. I really don’t think there can be any doubt in that regard…. I’m not sure how it works from a practical perspective and don’t want to be too ghoulish really, but I’d imagine the river was secondary to something else if that were to have happened …

The other possibility is that she has chosen to disappear, I suppose.

Then you still have a range of far less viable possibilities.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
When you look at it realistically suicide is the most likely outcome. I really don’t think there can be any doubt in that regard…. I’m not sure how it works from a practical perspective and don’t want to be too ghoulish really, but I’d imagine the river was secondary to something else if that were to have happened …

The other possibility is that she has chosen to disappear, I suppose.

Then you still have a range of far less viable possibilities.
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They are the 2 most likely outcomes I feel.
I wrote them off for so long because of the picture created of such a happy lady.

The first time I considered self harm in anyway was after the husband made that remark in his interview about the tidying that morning.

Nobody has ’accidently’ drowned in there if we are honest.

Let’s hope she has absconded but the fact that there is no cctv footage of her anywhere after the last sighting seems that this too is unlikely.
 
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Lala said:
Not necessarily if your mind is out of balance, which is what it is if you’re on the verge of suicide.

And any parent who kills themselves is ultimately leaving their kids behind which you could say, no loving parent would. But obviously they do.
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But if she was cleaning the kids room etc...she's going to make sure the dog is ok, it would be a priority along with the children.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
When you look at it realistically suicide is the most likely outcome. I really don’t think there can be any doubt in that regard…. I’m not sure how it works from a practical perspective and don’t want to be too ghoulish really, but I’d imagine the river was secondary to something else if that were to have happened …

The other possibility is that she has chosen to disappear, I suppose.

Then you still have a range of far less viable possibilities.
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I would imagine disappearing is nigh on impossible these days, especially as none of her cards have been used and hasn't been seen on any CCTV anywhere.
 
Killingmesoftly said:
Was it not a contained area where she’d know another dog walker would likely find..also if your contemplating going in water your hardly gonna be in the best rational place I guess…
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Nah, you'd worry they'd get out on the road. It's not a contained area for a dog and she'd know that.
 
Lala said:
They are the 2 most likely outcomes I feel.
I wrote them off for so long because of the picture created of such a happy lady.

The first time I considered self harm in anyway was after the husband made that remark in his interview about the tidying that morning.

Nobody has ’accidently’ drowned in there if we are honest.

Let’s hope she has absconded but the fact that there is no cctv footage of her anywhere after the last sighting seems that this too is unlikely.
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No they haven’t accidentally drowned..

Quite a bit of how Paul described the morning was strange..

I also found the routine he described quite odd, in that it seemed like they were both working getting the morning routine done, but operating quite separately without much interaction… He described him putting kids in car while she was doing something else etc… It all felt a bit like ships that pass in the night
 
Lytham_fy8 said:
But if she was cleaning the kids room etc...she's going to make sure the dog is ok, it would be a priority along with the children.
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We don‘t know how she viewed the dog situation. She knew her phone would be found and ergo her dog.

Leaving your kids forever is less fathomable in reality but it’s what happens.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
No they haven’t accidentally drowned..

Quite a bit of how Paul described the morning was strange..

I also found the routine he described quite odd, in that it seemed like they were both working getting the morning routine done, but operating quite separately without much interaction… He described him putting kids in car while she was doing something else etc… It all felt a bit like ships that pass in the night
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Yes I got that impression too.

Things don’t appear to have been well in the household what with the emergency welfare call out too. Strained probably, in the least.
 
Lytham_fy8 said:
I would imagine disappearing is nigh on impossible these days, especially as none of her cards have been used and hasn't been seen on any CCTV anywhere.
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It’s probably difficult over a prolonged period, but maybe not so difficult in the short term (especially if you’re not alone).

Lala said:
We don‘t know how she viewed the dog situation. She knew her phone would be found and ergo her dog.

Leaving your kids forever is less fathomable in reality but it’s what happens.
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I suppose in an enclosed field, where there are plenty of walkers etc she might have felt the dog would be safely found… but then would she not have also feared the dog potentially coming in the water after her?

Leaving the kids is less likely, but with hormonal changes going on, life can get on top of you… If she’d met someone and had an exit route, combined with perhaps not being in her ‘normal’ state of mind, it’s possible.
 
I thought in the tv interview, it was a strange, he was looking high as a kite, holding things back but the mods deleted the post and others, why I dont know. Maybe they have all the ** evidence but cant work it out. Useless
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
It’s probably difficult over a prolonged period, but maybe not so difficult in the short term (especially if you’re not alone).


I suppose in an enclosed field, where there are plenty of walkers etc she might have felt the dog would be safely found… but then would she not have also feared the dog potentially coming in the water after her?

Leaving the kids is less likely, but with hormonal changes going on, life can get on top of you… If she’d met someone and had an exit route, combined with perhaps not being in her ‘normal’ state of mind, it’s possible.
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I suppose I meant leaving the kids via suicide. If we are trying to talk like we expect her to be rational with the dog we know that all rationality has in reality gone out of of the window at this point.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
It’s probably difficult over a prolonged period, but maybe not so difficult in the short term (especially if you’re not alone).


I suppose in an enclosed field, where there are plenty of walkers etc she might have felt the dog would be safely found… but then would she not have also feared the dog potentially coming in the water after her?

Leaving the kids is less likely, but with hormonal changes going on, life can get on top of you… If she’d met someone and had an exit route, combined with perhaps not being in her ‘normal’ state of mind, it’s possible.
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Best case scenario.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
No they haven’t accidentally drowned..

Quite a bit of how Paul described the morning was strange..

I also found the routine he described quite odd, in that it seemed like they were both working getting the morning routine done, but operating quite separately without much interaction… He described him putting kids in car while she was doing something else etc… It all felt a bit like ships that pass in the night
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Or a lot of long term relationships.
 
todayistheday said:
I thought in the tv interview, it was a strange, he was looking high as a kite, holding things back but the mods deleted the post and others, why I don't know. Maybe they have all the ** evidence but cant work it out. Useless
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I imagine they moderated your posts as a lot of what you were posting was vile, underhand insinuations about a lady who is missing, and has a family at home, including two little girls that must be distraught. But you seem to be incapable of showing any empathy, you are still continuing tonight with your veiled barbs. Take a long look at yourself. Shame on you. I feel sad for you.
 
What about the fit-bit. Over how long is history maintained. What was the pattern of syncing over time? If it was switched off on Tuesday and that was not usual then it could imply planning. I don't think that would be for suicide.

Granted the state of mind for suicide would imply uncertainty but the unusual routine in the morning, followed by the normality of kids at school, dog walking, arranging with friends, work emails and calls and then jumping in the river doesn't feel right. The activity would seem more a prelude to making a disappearance.
 
Delfino said:
What about the fit-bit. Over how long is history maintained. What was the pattern of syncing over time? If it was switched off on Tuesday and that was not usual then it could imply planning. I don't think that would be for suicide.

Granted the state of mind for suicide would imply uncertainty but the unusual routine in the morning, followed by the normality of kids at school, dog walking, arranging with friends, work emails and calls and then jumping in the river doesn't feel right. The activity would seem more a prelude to making a disappearance.
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And that’s what my thoughts were last week Delf but how has she managed to evade every cctv camera and every witness after the phone was placed on the bench from 9.20 onwards ?

That makes little sense and would have been very very difficult.
 
Lala said:
They are the 2 most likely outcomes I feel.
I wrote them off for so long because of the picture created of such a happy lady.

The first time I considered self harm in anyway was after the husband made that remark in his interview about the tidying that morning.

Nobody has ’accidently’ drowned in there if we are honest.

Let’s hope she has absconded but the fact that there is no cctv footage of her anywhere after the last sighting seems that this too is unlikely.
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There were ways off there without CCTV including one of the exits and going across the river.
 
Delfino said:
There were ways off there without CCTV including one of the exits and going across the river.
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Yes but you would come across cctv eventually and it wouldn’t take that long either. There has been nothing at all.
 
Delfino said:
She could have a friend who had a car close by.
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Again more chances of a sighting too if there were a car somewhere waiting for her.
And her phone would surely have some history of contact with someone if a plan like that were to be put in place. It wouldn’t happen over night, there would be a trace of some planning I’m sure.
And after all this media attention surely they would have been spotted or one of them at least woukd feel compelled to let the family or police know that Nicola was ok ?
 
I see the police have now announced they are conducting an internal review into their investigation, which would be led by its head of crime Det Ch Supt Pauline Stables.

Sure it's normal to self-review but it would feel more appropriate to ask another force surely?
 
Lala said:
Again more chances of a sighting too if there were a car somewhere waiting for her.
And her phone would surely have some history of contact with someone if a plan like that were to be put in place. It wouldn’t happen over night, there would be a trace of some planning I’m sure.
And after all this media attention surely they would have been spotted or one of them at least woukd feel compelled to let the family or police know that Nicola was ok ?
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Agree but nothing makes sense.
 
Would it be possible for her to walk further down the path, and go in the water, without being picked up on cctv?
 
@Lala, what are your thoughts on her being able to hold a conversation with a friend a short time before disappearing? Would she not be noticeably showing signs of her state of mind ?

Also texting a friend to arrange to meet up with the kids at around 09:00 am.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
@Lala, what are your thoughts on her being able to hold a conversation with a friend a short time before disappearing? Would she not be noticeably showing signs of her state of mind ?

Also texting a friend to arrange to meet up with the kids at around 09:00 am.
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Not necessarily. People can generally appear very calm just before as they are resigned to what they are going to do and calm that the stress or darkness will be ending.
My dad calmly told my mum and brother he was going to do some woodwork in the garage 🤷‍♀️
I don’t think you can ever apply any certain logic to what someone will be like.
There is no denying that certain things don‘t make sense but suicide in itself doesn’t make sense to the rational mind.

The police referring themselves for investigation over the contact they had at the welfare call out ten days earlier makes me wonder if they now feel she should have been sectioned at that point maybe, therefore a duty of care neglect issue ?

Hey, there is still the possibility she has disappeared of her own volition but it’s very hard to see how.
 
BlossomHill said:
I imagine they moderated your posts as a lot of what you were posting was vile, underhand insinuations about a lady who is missing, and has a family at home, including two little girls that must be distraught. But you seem to be incapable of showing any empathy, you are still continuing tonight with your veiled barbs. Take a long look at yourself. Shame on you. I feel sad for you.
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TITD has always been snide
Can’t help himself
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
I don’t get how you drown yourself in what was probably 2ft of water at most
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This was where I was coming from Tim, but if you look at it slightly differently… insomuch as the drowning is msybe secondary… without wishing to sound horrible… The primary cause might be an overdose
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Never looked anything like that deep when I have walked there
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That’s what that Peter guy said. He said it was about 2 ft at the edge so he was dissing the fact of an accidental drowning, but he did say it was either 18 or 30ft in the middle. One of those is right 😳 either way very deep and he said that you would have to jump in to be able to get out of your depth etc etc.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
This was where I was coming from Tim, but if you look at it slightly differently… insomuch as the drowning is msybe secondary… without wishing to sound horrible… The primary cause might be an overdose
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That’s a fair point but I don’t think the pattern of what happens suggests that

Based on Burley’s recreation of her walk she was ‘ motoring ‘
Why speak to your boss and a friend / log on a teams call / take your dog if you were focused on topping yourself
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
That’s a fair point but I don’t think the pattern of what happens suggests that

Based on Burley’s recreation of her walk she was ‘ motoring ‘
Why speak to your boss and a friend / log on a teams call / take your dog if you were focused on topping yourself
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If you didn’t do those things or some of them for sure then you would possibly cause concern, eg not in the call, didn’t take the dog etc, all things that would arouse suspicion about what you are about to do.
Someone intent on it, and not a cry for help doesnt want to arouse suspicion, they want that clear moment of time when they can be alone undisturbed.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
That’s a fair point but I don’t think the pattern of what happens suggests that

Based on Burley’s recreation of her walk she was ‘ motoring ‘
Why speak to your boss / log on a teams call / take your dog
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She didn’t speak to her boss, she emailed. She wasn’t active on the teams call, just a passive listener (no camera or microphone).

She also wasn’t ‘motoring’ , ‘Burley’ actually said she must have been quite a bit slower than they were..

Of course she’s also going to want to not draw any attention to herself, by doing anything out of the ordinary.
 
Dewster said:
Would it be possible for her to walk further down the path, and go in the water, without being picked up on cctv?
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I could be wrong but I don’t think the river walk was covered by CCTV.

In which case it’d presumably be possible to cross Garstang Road and pick up the river on the other side. Don’t know as I don’t know the area well enough, but maybe that was the reason the police were asking for dash cam footage from motorists.
 
I would think there's no chance whatsoever that she's intentionally disappeared unfortunately. There's a slim chance she could with help, but surely there'd be records somewhere of organising it.

Again, none of the theories hold up.
 
I’d always thought the police were correct in that she went into the river somehow.
But now I’m not as sure.
If she’s had a breakdown she could have walked away. Where to - I don’t know. Without being seen? That’s seems almost impossible. But she wasn’t someone coping well at home. It makes the hypothesis that she walked away more probable than first appeared.
I’d hope that she’d planned to get away with meticulous precision. That’s the only way I can see her being alive.
It’s very difficult to envisage suicide via drowning in that lake. Does she just walk into it and let herself drift off with the current? It’s so implausible. And to somehow leave no trace. Again it’s very difficult to envisage.
Did she have an accomplice? Very unlikely. It’s as much as mystery now as it was at the beginning, despite what we now know.
 
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