Blackpool South by-election poll.

Which party will you vote for?

  • Conservative

    Votes: 11 17.5%

  • Labour

    Votes: 28 44.4%

  • Lib Dem

    Votes: 2 3.2%

  • Green

    Votes: 2 3.2%

  • Reform UK

    Votes: 20 31.7%
  • Total voters
    63
  • Poll closed .
EdgeleyTangerine said:
Ok, but you haven’t answered. What is it if it’s not a far right racist political party?

Don’t forget, their one and only MP was booted out of the Conservative Party for comments made about “islamists”. Hardly a ringing endorsement for a party that isn’t a far right or racist.
Click to expand...
There isn't a far right political party at the moment hence why its nonsense to say that they are the National Front

Reform are probably centre right if you actually have to label them

Lets not also forget that the previous Labour leader was booted out for being anti sematic

The political landscape is completely fcuked imo
 
Last edited:
Phil_bfc deux said:
There isn't a far right political party at the moment hence why its nonsense to say that they are the National Front

Reform are probably centre right if you actually have to label them

Lets not also forget that the previous Labour leader was booted out for being anti sematic

The political landscape is completely fcuked imo
Click to expand...
I’m not sure reform can be described as centre right.

Corbyn was only booted out so the Labour Party can appeal to those who maybe sit at the centre / centre right of politics and to ultimately pull their vote to the Labour Party rather than conservative.
 
EdgeleyTangerine said:
I’m not sure reform can be described as centre right.

Corbyn was only booted out so the Labour Party can appeal to those who maybe sit at the centre / centre right of politics and to ultimately pull their vote to the Labour Party rather than conservative.
Click to expand...
I know that hence why a lot of traditional labour votes can't vote for a party that hasn't supported the unions

Like i said the political landscape is fcuked but just making lazy labels up doesn't really help anyone

Reform are nothing like the National Front and that was the point being made
 
Phil_bfc deux said:
I know that hence why a lot of traditional labour votes can't vote for a party that hasn't supported the unions

Like i said the political landscape is fcuked but just making lazy labels up doesn't really help anyone

Reform are nothing like the National Front and that was the point being made
Click to expand...
At least you can drive at 30 again Phil?
 
A_Tense_Grin said:
Oh great. Got to listen to Labour now harp on about how and what the Tories have done. Critchley as manager and Labour in Government. When will it end.
Click to expand...
I don't think the analogy is fair. The days of populist politics is done. Politics is a serious business and should be managed by serious people. I'd rather have a dull but dependable Starmer than sneering Old Etonians.
 
Macseasider said:
I don't think the analogy is fair. The days of populist politics is done. Politics is a serious business and should be managed by serious people. I'd rather have a dull but dependable Starmer than sneering Old Etonians.
Click to expand...
This new new Labour under Starmer are probably more right wing than the current useless Woke Tory lot

Politics are fcuked in this country, this Labour won't ask for a middle east ceasefire and won't support the unions

Labour only in name
 
So, looking at the actual result compared to the AVFTT one I called it pretty much as it turned out. On here the Labour vote was well understated at 44.4% compared with the actual result of 58.9% of the vote. Reform achieved 16.9% of the actual poll. Well below the 31.7% achieved on here. That speaks volumes about the AVFTT demographic of our right wing voters. Then again, the actual turn out was low. However, given that the AVFTT Tory vote was pretty much bang on the money, it suggests that the actual poll saw a large Tory>Labour swing, as opposed to the Tory>Reform swing witnessed on here.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
So, looking at the actual result compared to the AVFTT one I called it pretty much as it turned out. On here the Labour vote was well understated at 44.4% compared with the actual result of 58.9% of the vote. Reform achieved 16.9% of the actual poll. Well below the 31.7% achieved on here. That speaks volumes about the AVFTT demographic of our right wing voters. Then again, the actual turn out was low. However, given that the AVFTT Tory vote was pretty much bang on the money, it suggests that the actual poll saw a large Tory>Labour swing, as opposed to the Tory>Reform swing witnessed on here.
Click to expand...
Right wing voters?

There you go again with your lazy labels
 
Phil_bfc deux said:
There isn't a far right political party at the moment hence why its nonsense to say that they are the National Front

Reform are probably centre right if you actually have to label them

Lets not also forget that the previous Labour leader was booted out for being anti sematic

The political landscape is completely fcuked imo
Click to expand...
Reform is a very nationalist right wing party. It also has some very dodgy, far-right camp followers. What last night's by-election showed was a deliberate Tory to Labour swing. Yes, there will have been a backlash against Scott Benton but if voters had been determined to stay on the right wing, then they would have gone to Reform. Whilst a noticeable number did that, the bulk of the shift was back to the centre-left.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
Reform is a very nationalist right wing party. It also has some very dodgy, far-right camp followers. What last night's by-election showed was a deliberate Tory to Labour swing. Yes, there will have been a backlash against Scott Benton but if voters had been determined to stay on the right wing, then they would have gone to Reform. Whilst a noticeable number did that, the bulk of the shift was back to the centre-left.
Click to expand...
No i disagree on all that

I don't think Reform are a very nationalist right wing party at all and Mark Butcher is a known charity leader in the area, that's hardly your staple right winger and I haven't see any right wing views from him

Blackpool South has always been a Labour area, Benton only won due to the mess the last Labour lot made and was very much a protest vote

You but too much on this left/right thing when it reality there really isn't much difference between any of them
 
Last edited:
Phil_bfc deux said:
No i disagree on all that

I don't think Reform are a very nationalist right wing party at all and Mark Butcher is a known charity leader in the area, I haven't see any Right wing views from him

Blackpool South has always been a Labour area, Benton only won due to the mess the last Labour lot made and was very much a protest vote

You but too much on this left/right thing when it reality there really isn't much difference between any of them
Click to expand...
Until 1997 Blackpool South had always gone to the Tories.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
Until 1997 Blackpool South had always gone to the Tories.
Click to expand...
Yep, Blackpool South often lazily gets mislabeled as one of these traditional Labour heartlands. Very very strong Tory seat since it's creation until 97 and now again. Harbingers of massive Labour majorities.
 
Phil_bfc deux said:
Blackpool South has always been a Labour area, Benton only won due to the mess the last Labour lot made and was very much a protest vote
Click to expand...
No, Benton won cos of the Brexit vote. The Tories have created their own demise and with our electoral system there's only one place to turn to. We had the chance to change the electoral system but just as we did with Brexit, we fucked it up.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
So, looking at the actual result compared to the AVFTT one I called it pretty much as it turned out. On here the Labour vote was well understated at 44.4% compared with the actual result of 58.9% of the vote. Reform achieved 16.9% of the actual poll. Well below the 31.7% achieved on here. That speaks volumes about the AVFTT demographic of our right wing voters. Then again, the actual turn out was low. However, given that the AVFTT Tory vote was pretty much bang on the money, it suggests that the actual poll saw a large Tory>Labour swing, as opposed to the Tory>Reform swing witnessed on here.
Click to expand...
Avftt is populated by mainly old men, the Labour vote is probably about right in that category.
 
It's about where I expected although you always hope for more.

Seemed a low turnout too, little appetite for this by election.

The disappointment is to not quite pip the Conservatives.

But again, reforms strength is not in by elections, it'll be via visual media in a general election.

So considering it's a standing start without the armies of people the big 2 have, really it's not bad if not amazing.

It's disappointing so many still voted for the Conservatives in particular and for Labour, as it shows why nothing will ever really change, people are tribal.

Anyway it's a good round 1 and gets the name out there. Mark now has maybe 6 months to get stuck in and build and go again in the real test.

This was one of the predictions from britian elects.

1000012470.jpg
 
Well Done Chris. Carl will be delighted. Who was the union organiser for the CWU . Communications Workers Union . When i worked there. Carl is Chris,s father. .
 
Macseasider said:
Hilarious that Boris was turned away from voting for having no photo ID in his local Crime and Police Commissioner polling station.
Click to expand...
Scary to think that clown was our prime minister. Even scarier that we then somehow had worse (if that’s possible) in Liz Truss who beat Rishi to the the post and yet he still ended up PM. Absolute farce. Bring on the GE.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
So, looking at the actual result compared to the AVFTT one I called it pretty much as it turned out. On here the Labour vote was well understated at 44.4% compared with the actual result of 58.9% of the vote. Reform achieved 16.9% of the actual poll. Well below the 31.7% achieved on here. That speaks volumes about the AVFTT demographic of our right wing voters. Then again, the actual turn out was low. However, given that the AVFTT Tory vote was pretty much bang on the money, it suggests that the actual poll saw a large Tory>Labour swing, as opposed to the Tory>Reform swing witnessed on here.
Click to expand...
Or maybe the Labour voters on here don't live in Blackpool South so didn't vote as advised, whereas the Reform backers had no such scruples😉🤣
 
JJpool said:
It's about where I expected although you always hope for more.

Seemed a low turnout too, little appetite for this by election.

The disappointment is to not quite pip the Conservatives.

But again, reforms strength is not in by elections, it'll be via visual media in a general election.

So considering it's a standing start without the armies of people the big 2 have, really it's not bad if not amazing.

It's disappointing so many still voted for the Conservatives in particular and for Labour, as it shows why nothing will ever really change, people are tribal.

Anyway it's a good round 1 and gets the name out there. Mark now has maybe 6 months to get stuck in and build and go again in the real test.

This was one of the predictions from britian elects.

View attachment 19254
Click to expand...
It was an about average turnout for a by election. Third parties usually do well in by elections. They had a relatively strong candidate. If you chart the history of UKIP in by elections in the mid 2010s, at 14% nationally they would have expected to get 27% in Blackpool South last night. Poor performance all around.
 
Hilarious that Boris was turned away from voting for having no photo ID in his local Crime and Police Commissioner polling station.
JOHNMAJORTOM said:
cos he is thick as two day old custard.
Click to expand...

It’s another example that Bozo thinks the rules do not apply to him.
He thinks that of all rules because he is “famous” (more likely “notorious”).
 
foggy said:
It was an about average turnout for a by election. Third parties usually do well in by elections. They had a relatively strong candidate. If you chart the history of UKIP in by elections in the mid 2010s, at 14% nationally they would have expected to get 27% in Blackpool South last night. Poor performance all around.
Click to expand...
Ukip didn’t field a candidate last night.
 
JJpool said:
It's about where I expected although you always hope for more.

Seemed a low turnout too, little appetite for this by election.

The disappointment is to not quite pip the Conservatives.

But again, reforms strength is not in by elections, it'll be via visual media in a general election.

So considering it's a standing start without the armies of people the big 2 have, really it's not bad if not amazing.

It's disappointing so many still voted for the Conservatives in particular and for Labour, as it shows why nothing will ever really change, people are tribal.

Anyway it's a good round 1 and gets the name out there. Mark now has maybe 6 months to get stuck in and build and go again in the real test.

This was one of the predictions from britian elects.

View attachment 19254
Click to expand...
I honestly think I could start a populist party, bang out some half truths to appeal to a demographic and do as well.
 
foggy said:
It was an about average turnout for a by election. Third parties usually do well in by elections. They had a relatively strong candidate. If you chart the history of UKIP in by elections in the mid 2010s, at 14% nationally they would have expected to get 27% in Blackpool South last night. Poor performance all around.
Click to expand...
Reform aren't a typical third party, as we've discussed before.

There was someone on BBC news earlier saying as much, usually they do better in a by-election, but Reform doesn't have that structure or ground campaign and will likely do better from across the airwaves etc. He was saying they could be posting these sort of scores across lots of seats in the general election.

Ukip was a totally different setup.
 
JJpool said:
Reform aren't a typical third party, as we've discussed before.

There was someone on BBC news earlier saying as much, usually they do better in a by-election, but Reform doesn't have that structure or ground campaign and will likely do better from across the airwaves etc. He was saying they could be posting these sort of scores across lots of seats.

Ukip was a totally different setup.
Click to expand...
Yes I know, they are in a worse position, as is my point and continues to be evidenced. Your claim they will do better at a GE is baseless hope. Which you are entitled to, but it has no supporting evidence. They campaigned hard in this election by all accounts. Amounted to little.
 
I don't buy into this "Reform have no infrastructure" stuff. They had plenty of opportunity to mobilise for this contest, an incumbent Party whose MP had left in disgrace and a local community that has struggled with deprivation for ages. If they can't do well there, they are unlikely to do well generally.

Did they actually field candidates in the local elections? They hadn't won a single seat last time I looked. But if they haven't decided to take part that would explain it.

I'm sure they will be more prominent in the GE. Any party that helps deliver dozens of seats to Labour would be.
 
basilrobbie3 said:
I don't buy into this "Reform have no infrastructure" stuff. They had plenty of opportunity to mobilise for this contest, an incumbent Party whose MP had left in disgrace and a local community that has struggled with deprivation for ages. If they can't do well there, they are unlikely to do well generally.

Did they actually field candidates in the local elections? They hadn't won a single seat last time I looked. But if they haven't decided to take part that would explain it.

I'm sure they will be more prominent in the GE. Any party that helps deliver dozens of seats to Labour would be.
Click to expand...
I think they do have poor infrastructure but I just don't see that as changing between now and the General Election. I's been a terrible local elections for them so far. If you compare the wards where they have stood and UKIP stood previous, their share is well below. Reform are on 12%, UKIP got 19% in 2015 and 21% in 2016. If I were inside the Tory war room I would be pushing to call an election soon before they can have a chance to get their act together under Farage, because that is still a possibility, even if small. Probably the only hidden variable left.

Everything we have seen so far tracks for Reform to underperform their voting intention polling. I'd guess 8-10% right now. Not 14/15%. Curious how much airtime and attention that gets them as opposed to the Greens, and arguably even the Lib Dems.
 
foggy said:
Yes I know, they are in a worse position, as is my point and continues to be evidenced. Your claim they will do better at a GE is baseless hope. Which you are entitled to, but it has no supporting evidence. They campaigned hard in this election by all accounts. Amounted to little.
Click to expand...
Not necessarily worse just different and that other side may well grow as they do. Probably have a broader appeal and more potential. They also have Farage potentially returning which is said may add a few % points and bring with it some of the old ukip style 'people's army'.

It's been an impressive rise in the polls and results considering coming from almost nothing.

Many people have said the general election is fought more over the airwaves and debates etc, so there's every chance they will continue to grow and do even better in some places.

I wouldn't say it amounted to little and 1 month of campaigning vs the 2 established party machines isn't a lot.

They now have some months to further campaign.

It would be interesting to see the postal vote numbers, I get the feeling Reform beat the Conservatives in who actually turned up to vote.
 
JJpool said:
Not necessarily worse just different and that other side may well grow as they do. Probably have a broader appeal and more potential. They also have Farage potentially returning which is said may add a few % points and bring with it some of the old ukip style 'people's army'.

It's been an impressive rise in the polls and results considering coming from almost nothing.

Many people have said the general election is fought more over the airwaves and debates etc, so there's every chance they will continue to grow and do even better in some places.

I wouldn't say it amounted to little and 1 month of campaigning vs the 2 established party machines isn't a lot.

They now have some months to further campaign.

It would be interesting to see the postal vote numbers, I get the feeling Reform beat the Conservatives in who actually turned up to vote.
Click to expand...
You're saying they can't get votes out in local and by elections, of course that's worse. That's the bread and butter of third parties. Their national polling has plateaued over the last month and all evidence shows it isn't translating to votes.

They will be going up against the two party machine in the general election too. That won't change. Reform put a higher percentage of their resources in this seat than they will be able to across the country in the GE. They had Lee Anderson going about on a big bus and the leader standing with the candidate at local football game. They won't have that presence in every constituency at a general.
 
IMG_2607.jpeg

Who’s the guy on the right in the skull cap and Union Jack tie?

Funny watching him on the news this morning shaking his head when the Labour winner spoke
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top