Past the peak, but long way to go

Athers

Well-known member
The R is below one meaning we are past the peak. Good to have a bit of good news. Still a very long way until life returns to anywhere near normal but it’s the first baby steps towards normality
 
Plan next week on how to restart the economy and ease the lock down. Some light at the end of the tunnel. I might have a pint to celebrate 😁
 
Paul, the thinking is that there are actually a lot less people with the virus now. So therefore a lot less risk of catching it. The virus has been stopped in it's tracks to a degree because it needs people to transport it.
I agree with your sentiments but we were always going to reach a point where there is some risk involved. Unless we stay in lockdown until a vaccine has been found and everybody has been vaccinated. But by then there won't be much left to come out of lockdown for. It's a very difficult balancing act and I'm glad I'm not making the decisions.
 
I think the next review next week will likely keep the restrictions mostly for a further three weeks. Other countries like Italy have only just started easing down and we're about two or three weeks behind. It'll be end of May before we can go out and visit people, and some smaller shops start opening I would think. But we are over halfway through this full lockdown, so that's something positive even though some restrictions will be around for many more months.
 
Paul, the thinking is that there are actually a lot less people with the virus now. So therefore a lot less risk of catching it. The virus has been stopped in it's tracks to a degree because it needs people to transport it.
I agree with your sentiments but we were always going to reach a point where there is some risk involved. Unless we stay in lockdown until a vaccine has been found and everybody has been vaccinated. But by then there won't be much left to come out of lockdown for. It's a very difficult balancing act and I'm glad I'm not making the decisions.
I see, thanks for that. Not a decision I would want to be making either.

You mention that ‘The virus has been stopped in it's tracks to a degree because it needs people to transport it.’ so that basically means as soon as people are about again it will start to transport? As you say a very difficult decision as to what happens next.
 
Has anything changed since we locked down? Do we have a vaccine? The only reason the "R" rate has come down is because we have locked down the country and reduced infection. Easing what we are doing now will more than likely lead to another spike. Getting back to "normal" will take a long time as some are saying we are going to have live with a "new normal"
 
If lockdown continues as it is for another month there will be some very big casualties business wise out there
That appears to be crux of it to me - when is the negative of a smaller number of Corona related deaths outweighed by the positive of businesses keeping going. Very tough decision.
 
If there has been over 6k new cases in the last 24hrs how are we past the peak?
That is a rising number whether that's to do with increased testing or not it is still a frightening amount and every reason to keep the lockdown going.
 
I see, thanks for that. Not a decision I would want to be making either.

You mention that ‘The virus has been stopped in it's tracks to a degree because it needs people to transport it.’ so that basically means as soon as people are about again it will start to transport? As you say a very difficult decision as to what happens next.
Paul, yes it will start to transport again as people have contact. But a lot less people will have it, so a lot less will catch it. And what TAM says is quite right. If we continue indefinitely with lockdown the economy will be devastated. It's already suffered greatly. At some point we have to come out and take that risk. The more testing done as well will at least confirm who has had the virus. The more data the medical and scientific experts have, the better our control over it.
 
That appears to be crux of it to me - when is the negative of a smaller number of Corona related deaths outweighed by the positive of businesses keeping going. Very tough decision.
Balance of scales, this is a toughie and I'd personally hate to make this decision but I prefer life than death any day of the week. So many downsides to being dead.
 
Its a tough one looks like a gentle relaxing may come fairly soon but whilst trying to maintain forms of social distancing.
I think that is the only option really.

From a personal point of view it looks like the North West is not doing great on the graph & 2nd to only London with hospital cases.

If you can keep the R below 1 the (lower the better) infections fall & eventually it should fade out, that wont be an easy thing to achieve though.

Optimist says it may fade significantly in another couple of months like the flu virus usually does.
Pessimist says it may not and linger enough to create another peak.
 
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I think using the word peak is a bit misleading - it kind of infers a short sharp period. Whereas the curve has been flattened and therefore the 'peak' of this has and will last weeks, but at a much lower level than it would have been had we not had a lockdown. So while there will be business casualties, there is little point in only putting in restrictions for half of the long peak period. Lifting them too soon would mean more deaths AND more business casualties in the long run. And these decisions need to be made for the long term mitigation of this. It's an incredibly difficult balancing act and it's unlikely they'll get it exactly right.
 
whats baffling is after over 5 weeks in lockdown there have been over 4,500 new cases per day,in fact over 6,000 in last 24hours,i believe some are not treating this lock down seriously
 
This may sound horrible but.....

Now they've lumped together death figures the trend isn't obvious re the hosps. Care home death will be seen as contained and not too much of a problem if staff are tested etc etc etc. If new cases and deaths are declining in the community in general then the Economy v People theme I ran a few weeks back come well into play. The Economy wins, hands down.

Right or wrong? Depends on your own personal circumstances.
 
yet over 6,000 new cases in the last 24 hours,this in lockdown conditions,my view always has been two huge factors 1,a vaccine,2,a treatment
Lockdown isn't really lockdown. There's a lot more traffic on the roads all day long than the first week or so. Showery day so idleness kicks back in.
 
Might be being stupid here but if lockdown is lifted by any degree then surely anyone who currently has the virus but doesn’t know will just pass it on whenever they leave the house? Without a vaccine there is no way the virus will stop?
Hopefully steps to lift lockdown will be measured and gentle. And remember most of the deaths immediately prior to and during the peak were caused before the 2 metre distancing was properly observed. Baby steps 👍
 
Lockdown isn't really lockdown. There's a lot more traffic on the roads all day long than the first week or so. Showery day so idleness kicks back in.
I agree & as stated before our lockdown has been softer than a lot of other European Countries. Went out for a bike ride yesterday & I cant believe how busy the shop car parks were, Was following a car that left B&M bargains & drove to Home Bargains you are not telling me all these people are only doing essential shopping!
We are all guilty of it to a certain extent though tbf.
Early doors most were just happy to get some food & fingers crossed for toilet roll. Now if one shop doesnt have what they 'want' many will imo just pop to another store or drive back if they find they have forget something on their shop..
 
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There’s more cases today because testing has been ramped up. It’s a worry though. It seems to me the government are looking at wealth over health and potentially let the disease run its course, I hope I’m wrong.
 
There’s more cases today because testing has been ramped up. It’s a worry though. It seems to me the government are potentially looking at wealth over health and potentially let the disease run its course, I hope I’m wrong.
Health and wealth are inextricably linked unfortunately
Social deprivation brings with it a huge spike in deaths
 
There’s more cases today because testing has been ramped up. It’s a worry though. It seems to me the government are looking at wealth over health and potentially let the disease run its course, I hope I’m wrong.
Newer cases because of more testing. Fewer deaths. That’s almost positive because it demonstrates how many people have probably been infected prior to the increased testing but haven’t needed hospital treatment or died and subsequently were never tested.
As Chris Whitty said tonight, you can’t really compare or fully assess till the epidemic has passed 👍
 
I think using the word peak is a bit misleading - it kind of infers a short sharp period. Whereas the curve has been flattened and therefore the 'peak' of this has and will last weeks, but at a much lower level than it would have been had we not had a lockdown. So while there will be business casualties, there is little point in only putting in restrictions for half of the long peak period. Lifting them too soon would mean more deaths AND more business casualties in the long run. And these decisions need to be made for the long term mitigation of this. It's an incredibly difficult balancing act and it's unlikely they'll get it exactly right.

Oh I was in no way suggesting it was plain sailing from here on in. The fine balancing act of what’s more important - the economy or people’s lives. I know where I sit of the fence. I’d carry on lockdown until June if it meant getting the R number down. But I also realise a lot of businesses and people’s livelihoods are going to the wall. It’s a difficult choice to make
 
Also car use will have increased due to the increase in test stations... My car will be on the move tomorrow for myself and wife to get tested.
 
Good post Joe

It's a huge conundrum and a very difficult call

I've said it before for me any release from general lockdown to kickstart the economy has to be coupled with more stringent provisions for the ' at risk ' groups however unpalatable that might be to some

Problem is I don't think our govt has the steel to do that and even if they did they'd face a huge Baby Boomer backlash

They are damned if they do and the economy is goosed if they don't
 
Oh I was in no way suggesting it was plain sailing from here on in. The fine balancing act of what’s more important - the economy or people’s lives. I know where I sit of the fence. I’d carry on lockdown until June if it meant getting the R number down. But I also realise a lot of businesses and people’s livelihoods are going to the wall. It’s a difficult choice to make
Very balanced Athers 👍 and we have to be.
 
The economy versus health argument is not simplistic. Relaxing lockdown and then having to tighten back (or tighten even more) when infections rise and the NHS looks like being overwhelmed is probably worse for the economy than extension to current lockdown and reduction to a manageable number of cases that can be contact traced.

Even allowing R go to 1.1 means NHS being overwhelmed early autumn. It needs some good data to understand what can and cannot be done to prevent unacceptable rise in infections and hopefully that is being gathered. It will be a fine balanced decision especially when you bear in mind the R value fluctuates geographically based on population and household density.

Having said all that Tim Martin can go to fuck if he thinks he can open Spoons pubs in June.
 
Good post Joe

It's a huge conundrum and a very difficult call

I've said it before for me any release from general lockdown to kickstart the economy has to be coupled with more stringent provisions for the ' at risk ' groups however unpalatable that might be to some

Problem is I don't think our govt has the steel to do that and even if they did they'd face a huge Baby Boomer backlash

They are damned if they do and the economy is goosed if they don't
I think people have to be reasonable about how hard yet it important it is to balance that. Though some won’t be , obviously.
 
I think it also pays to wonder, are we,as a reasonably informed nation, now one of the few nations that are including care home and other deaths accurately in our stats. If so it looks far worse in the uk due to our statistical transparency.
 
Oh I was in no way suggesting it was plain sailing from here on in. The fine balancing act of what’s more important - the economy or people’s lives. I know where I sit of the fence. I’d carry on lockdown until June if it meant getting the R number down. But I also realise a lot of businesses and people’s livelihoods are going to the wall. It’s a difficult choice to make

Absolutely. When thinking of easing the lockdown, while we need to consider the number of struggling businesses now, we also need to think of the number of businesses that are just about coping now but would go under if we were forced to have another lockdown because we exited the first too soon.

This needs to be a decision taken to minimise long term economic damage not just short term. I'm glad I'm not making the call, and the government will be damned whatever they choose to do. Hindsight isn't something they can include in their policy decisions.
 
I think it also pays to wonder, are we,as a reasonably informed nation, now one of the few nations that are including care home and other deaths accurately in our stats. If so it looks far worse in the uk due to our statistical transparency.
Good point
I have read that Germany don't put Covid 19 down as the cause of death if there is an underlying condition
 
And yet the idiotic journalists continue to ask stupid questions and pour nothing but negativity over positivity. One stupid woman was even criticising Bojo believing his performance in todays briefing was far from convincing and questioned whether he was the right person to lead us out of this crisis. FFS the bloke nearly died!
 
Good point
I have read that Germany don't put Covid 19 down as the cause of death if there is an underlying condition
I think we are a very transparent nation because our media and public demand that. It probably doesn’t help us in the current stat wars , but it’s what we’ve demanded to know and you can’t trust the stat wars till this is all over and all countries report the fatalities the same way.
Edit to add, and we are putting deaths down to covid even with underlying health issues and if a patient had only a week to live despite covid.
Always pays to look at the bigger picture.
 
I do wish we would not use the word Lockdown cos it ain't. There is nothing, other than my conscience, stopping me leaving my house 10 times day, driving my car, walking through my village, going to the shops etc. France, Italy and Spain had a lockdown, we have had a "pretty please, stay at home" policy and it isn't working
 
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