Oxford vaccine shows 70% success rate rising to 90%

Dear me, a few egos afoot here. If they got paid by the word....

Despite all our Government's multiple fuck ups and lies we are likely to have some reasonably viable vaccine options available in the next few months. If the NHS staff and carers risking their lives believe it's the route to go, then we owe it to them to get vaccinated. Anyone that doesn't bother getting vaccinated should refuse treatment on principle if they subsequently catch it.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Just working out those numbers... To average 70% across the two with one at 62% and one at 90% that would mean..

Half Dose/Full Dose 2741 Participants with 33 people contracting virus in total (30 from Placebo and 3 from vaccinated group)
Full Dose / Full Dose 8895 Participants with 98 peopls contracting virus in total (71 from Placebo and 27 from vaccinated group)
Click to expand...
It’s odd. They are saying now it’s because the half and the full dose more closely mimics the real virus infection, and the body is less likely to reject the vaccine. Maybe they can get even better results with some further fine tuning.
Thought it was significant that no-one given the vaccine developed serious Covid-19.

Think everyone is looking forward to getting back to normality in 2021.
 
tangerine_neil said:
It’s odd. They are saying now it’s because the half and the full dose more closely mimics the real virus infection, and the body is less likely to reject the vaccine. Maybe they can get even better results with some further fine tuning.
Thought it was significant that no-one given the vaccine developed serious Covid-19.

Think everyone is looking forward to getting back to normality in 2021.
Click to expand...
This article offers some explanation

www.nature.com

Why Oxford’s positive COVID vaccine results are puzzling scientists

Preliminary data suggest that the immunization was more effective in trial participants who received a lower dose.
www.nature.com www.nature.com

It is good that nobody developed serious complications, though the numbers are small in terms of total infections

Though this is a bit concerning...

“Stephen Evans, a statistical epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, estimates, based on the data, the group that the ‘half-dose, full dose’ regimen could have an efficacy as low as 66%.”


 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Though this is a bit concerning...

“Stephen Evans, a statistical epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, estimates, based on the data, the group that the ‘half-dose, full dose’ regimen could have an efficacy as low as 66%.”
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Quote
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Just working out those numbers... To average 70% across the two with one at 62% and one at 90% that would mean..

Half Dose/Full Dose 2741 Participants with 33 people contracting virus in total (30 from Placebo and 3 from vaccinated group)
Full Dose / Full Dose 8895 Participants with 98 peopls contracting virus in total (71 from Placebo and 27 from vaccinated group)
Click to expand...
Here we go again
Just working out these numbers, no you didn't, you just copied them from a website.
Stephen Evan's comments were looking at the lower bounds of statistical probability which i hope you realise statistacally have a very low likelihood.
In fact this comment is about the most pessimistic i can find from any renowned scientist and even in this article he describes the arrival of this vaccine as good news.
Can you just not wait till the actual scientific papers are published or even until more data is published before going looking for negatives.
 
Poolcat1 said:
Quote

Here we go again
Just working out these numbers, no you didn't, you just copied them from a website.
Stephen Evan's comments were looking at the lower bounds of statistical probability which i hope you realise statistacally have a very low likelihood.
In fact this comment is about the most pessimistic i can find from any renowned scientist and even in this article he describes the arrival of this vaccine as good news.
Can you just not wait till the actual scientific papers are published or even until more data is published before going looking for negatives.
Click to expand...
I actually posted the rough numbers much earlier in the thread 👍
 
Poolcat1 said:
Quote

Here we go again
Just working out these numbers, no you didn't, you just copied them from a website.
Stephen Evan's comments were looking at the lower bounds of statistical probability which i hope you realise statistacally have a very low likelihood.
In fact this comment is about the most pessimistic i can find from any renowned scientist and even in this article he describes the arrival of this vaccine as good news.
Can you just not wait till the actual scientific papers are published or even until more data is published before going looking for negatives.
Click to expand...
It’s not difficult to work the numbers out really is it...

I worked them out myself!!! I haven’t seen them anywhere online or on this thread.
 
Poolcat1 said:
Quote

Here we go again
Just working out these numbers, no you didn't, you just copied them from a website.
Stephen Evan's comments were looking at the lower bounds of statistical probability which i hope you realise statistacally have a very low likelihood.
In fact this comment is about the most pessimistic i can find from any renowned scientist and even in this article he describes the arrival of this vaccine as good news.
Can you just not wait till the actual scientific papers are published or even until more data is published before going looking for negatives.
Click to expand...
I’m not going for the negatives... I’m simply providing some balance, which is sadly lacking.
 
seasideone said:
I actually posted the rough numbers much earlier in the thread 👍
Click to expand...
No you didn’t... you posted the number of people who engaged in each trial and the percentage efficacy for each group.

That information is published ...

I’ve calculated the number of actual cases of virus.... in each group...
 
I know it's not Friday but these amused me slightly:
"Brits refuse to get over-excited about new UK coronavirus vaccine, as it's not the first time they've pinned their hopes on a bunch of pricks from Oxford."
And a message from Boris:
"I'd like to thank the people of Liverpool during the mass DNA testing. We expect to solve most crimes within the next few weeks."
😃
 
Poolcat1 said:
I was only qualifying this statement as i don't see this board as unbalanced in my opinion
Click to expand...
I think we normally take it as read on here that people expressing opinions are, well, expressing opinions.

What you were doing is being a bit cunty... as you have throughout... I’m ok with that, but let’s call a spade a spade eh.
 
Just to say what a tremendous thing Oxford has done in saving the world,adding the many boat race victories,Varsity championships and of course winning University Challenge with such ease consistently almost every year.

Compares favourably to the -well what can I say?- verminous Cambridge who have gone even lower by thieving priceless artefacts from the past.
 
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