Ouch
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southshorepool
Well-known member
Highest since June I presume you mean.
Fixed, I’m such a pleb at times.
The Merry Stripes
Well-known member
We are doing a lot more tests so bound to be higher but agreed still frightening
amounts of new cases , only 8 deaths recorded though
amounts of new cases , only 8 deaths recorded though
163k tests, not many, if any, more than the start of June. So this is a sadly a significant increase.
Ormergod
Well-known member
COVID cases in England aren’t rising: here’s why - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine
The government has restricted movements on millions of people in England: COVID is apparently on the rise. But what happens when you start digging into the data.
www.cebm.net
SeasideKurt
Well-known member
Hospital admissions - Down.
Daily deaths - Down.
These two are the key. It's kinda obvious this virus is around and in more people than we think.
Daily deaths - Down.
These two are the key. It's kinda obvious this virus is around and in more people than we think.
Blackpool Are Back!
Well-known member
People that have symptons now, can easily go and get tested. Hence more cases are being shown as positive.
This wasn't the case before.
The figures that are really important are those being admitted to hospital and those dying of the virus.
And those 2 figures are thankfully, diminishing.
This wasn't the case before.
The figures that are really important are those being admitted to hospital and those dying of the virus.
And those 2 figures are thankfully, diminishing.
Lost Seasider
Well-known member
Lagging indicators.
traffordtang
Well-known member
Also people are being tested because of test and trace who are asymptomatic. These cases would not have previously been tested and would not therefore have shown up in any stats. I read somewhere that around half the recent positive tests were asymptomatic
glasshalffull
Well-known member
Yes I think we have to hang on to the thought that it is a result of increasing testing for now.
It does not appear to be translating into more hospitalised cases and deaths so far. I think that was the case in Leicester anyway
.
It does not appear to be translating into more hospitalised cases and deaths so far. I think that was the case in Leicester anyway
.
SeasideKurt
Well-known member
Well, they've been lagging for absolute weeks/months. SO I guess watch this space. But bar a few extra hundred cases due to extra testing. Doesn't actually look like a second spike is coming.
The second spike that some people want and the media want will come if it comes. The fact I've had to type that sentence shows what a shithouse country we live in at the moment.
bollieboy
Well-known member
Load of bollocks. Nobody wants a second spike but to avoid one then action needs to be taken as soon as cases rise. The ONS survey indicates that cases have been rising and daily data is indicating the same. Crush outbreaks now and avoid a second spike - the lesson from earlier in the year is act fast and decisively before you lose control.
SeasideKurt
Well-known member
It's not a load of bollocks at all. It's pretty clear we're in a world where the media have been loving this situation. The over negative reporting. The absolutely and massively inaccurate reporting. People have been saying there would be a second spike after re-opening the beaches etc. Nope there wasn't.
People just want to say I told you so. So you can take the load of bollocks comment and shove it.
bollieboy
Well-known member
Absolute bollocks Kurt.
SeasideKurt
Well-known member
Good for you. If I went around writing what a load of bollocks on your posts. I'd be here all day.
SeasideKurt
Well-known member
But anyway, I'll leave you and your bullshit posts to your day. Enjoy.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
Kurt is spot on... The media can't get enough of this.... They we're on the "Second Spike" bandwagon the moment the virus looked like it had turned in our favour. There's a constant stream of Covid 19 related clickbate on the internet from all the mainstream media sources.
Wizaard
Well-known member
Round our way, no symptoms, no test.
bollieboy
Well-known member
So the written press for example, who suffered massive losses in lock down, want another spike so that they can make more losses but have the satisfaction of saying 'we told you so' ?
Yep, makes sense to me.
ElBurroSinNombre
Well-known member
Death rate has been around 65 per day for the last two weeks (I'm using the 7 day rolling average), prior to that it was steadily falling
Cases definitely rising up from a low of 550 around July 10th to 787 yesterday (7 day rolling average) - obviously this figure is contingent on the number of tests carried out but from what has been posted above the number of tests looks fairly constant across that time period
So it reads like cases are truly rising again and you would expect deaths to start to rise again with a timelag.
I'm not happy about this, I don't want this outcome as some on here would have it but the numbers don't lie and that is what is being reported by the media. This is the result of easing the lockdown and as we know these decisons are not easy ones for the government to take, it is a real tightrope act. I hope that there is some positive movement on vaccines / treatment before we have a second spike as seems almost inevitable in the late autumn. The journalists are not making this stuff up, predictions of a second wave / spike are coming from science and government based on what is known.
The stats are all here;
www.worldometers.info
Cases definitely rising up from a low of 550 around July 10th to 787 yesterday (7 day rolling average) - obviously this figure is contingent on the number of tests carried out but from what has been posted above the number of tests looks fairly constant across that time period
So it reads like cases are truly rising again and you would expect deaths to start to rise again with a timelag.
I'm not happy about this, I don't want this outcome as some on here would have it but the numbers don't lie and that is what is being reported by the media. This is the result of easing the lockdown and as we know these decisons are not easy ones for the government to take, it is a real tightrope act. I hope that there is some positive movement on vaccines / treatment before we have a second spike as seems almost inevitable in the late autumn. The journalists are not making this stuff up, predictions of a second wave / spike are coming from science and government based on what is known.
The stats are all here;
United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
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Bottle
Well-known member
When did the Second Wave become the Second Spike? we have had numerous spikes over the past few months. We aren't really over that first wave are we, and as said before, the only reason we aren't in a Second Wave is because the First Wave has kept on rolling.
The drop in deaths, whilst case numbers are still high could - as the ONS figures on Seasonal Deaths where we are seeing more normal death rates for the time of year - be that at the start of the Pandemic it was the most vulnerable that took the brunt whilst treatments and alternative methods were still being developed, it hit them hard. The spread amongst the elderly in Care Home Situations is well documented and sadly they have seen the largest percentage of deaths attributed to that part of the population.
Those that have a better chance of survival in the first place - younger people - when poorly enough to be admitted to hospital are benefitting from improved knowledge, treatments and care, however many are now suffering from long term affects of the virus which even now still frighten the medical profession for their chances should a variant of COVID-19 strike in the near future.
The insidious nature of the Virus though causes confusion, there are many in the population who have had the Virus and never noticed anything other than minor symptoms, shook it off, thought nothing of it and carried on as normal, whilst for some who catch it, it's obvious they have it, self isolate and protect both themselves and others but then shake it off and then carry on. For some, catching it is potentially fatal.
These extremes in symptoms make it a nightmare to manage, there is some degree of sympathy from me who have to make the decisions that affect us all, a balancing act between shutting up shop and riding out the storm and trying to re-introduce some normality into our lives. But they should also bear some responsibility for getting so much wrong and sending out so many mixed messages and for focussing so much attention on other factors that are going to affect this Country in the next few months when their prime objective should be protecting the very people who put them in power.
Of course the media are going to be all over this, they don't really have to work too hard to get stories or coverage and the knee jerk reactionary lazy nature of the - mainly - Right Wing dominated Press will always cause friction as this is what they thrive on. Sadly very few in the printed press or TV/Radio media seem to want to hold the Government up to the spotlight, there are a few notable exceptions. But for all that it's important to keep your ears and eyes open, because being informed is the only way you can continue to protect yourself and make informed decisions about how you live your life at the moment - of course this is true at any time, but more so right now.
Knowledge is power and what you know, you don't forget!
The drop in deaths, whilst case numbers are still high could - as the ONS figures on Seasonal Deaths where we are seeing more normal death rates for the time of year - be that at the start of the Pandemic it was the most vulnerable that took the brunt whilst treatments and alternative methods were still being developed, it hit them hard. The spread amongst the elderly in Care Home Situations is well documented and sadly they have seen the largest percentage of deaths attributed to that part of the population.
Those that have a better chance of survival in the first place - younger people - when poorly enough to be admitted to hospital are benefitting from improved knowledge, treatments and care, however many are now suffering from long term affects of the virus which even now still frighten the medical profession for their chances should a variant of COVID-19 strike in the near future.
The insidious nature of the Virus though causes confusion, there are many in the population who have had the Virus and never noticed anything other than minor symptoms, shook it off, thought nothing of it and carried on as normal, whilst for some who catch it, it's obvious they have it, self isolate and protect both themselves and others but then shake it off and then carry on. For some, catching it is potentially fatal.
These extremes in symptoms make it a nightmare to manage, there is some degree of sympathy from me who have to make the decisions that affect us all, a balancing act between shutting up shop and riding out the storm and trying to re-introduce some normality into our lives. But they should also bear some responsibility for getting so much wrong and sending out so many mixed messages and for focussing so much attention on other factors that are going to affect this Country in the next few months when their prime objective should be protecting the very people who put them in power.
Of course the media are going to be all over this, they don't really have to work too hard to get stories or coverage and the knee jerk reactionary lazy nature of the - mainly - Right Wing dominated Press will always cause friction as this is what they thrive on. Sadly very few in the printed press or TV/Radio media seem to want to hold the Government up to the spotlight, there are a few notable exceptions. But for all that it's important to keep your ears and eyes open, because being informed is the only way you can continue to protect yourself and make informed decisions about how you live your life at the moment - of course this is true at any time, but more so right now.
Knowledge is power and what you know, you don't forget!
fcblackpool
Well-known member
The idea that the media WANT a second wave/spikes is totally wrong (apart from Lauren Laverne, who mentions lockdown 4345 times on average per radio show). The media are, however, relishing the content.
When, or rather if it all calms down then the media will move on. Even now there must be hours of sky news docs being prepared on the
THE PANDEMIC* THAT CHANGED THE WORLD
Same with every media outlet. The Mail will be planning a souvenir edition no doubt.
Who knows, Black Lives might matter again?
* I always thought a Pandemic was somebody who couldn't cook.
When, or rather if it all calms down then the media will move on. Even now there must be hours of sky news docs being prepared on the
THE PANDEMIC* THAT CHANGED THE WORLD
Same with every media outlet. The Mail will be planning a souvenir edition no doubt.
Who knows, Black Lives might matter again?
* I always thought a Pandemic was somebody who couldn't cook.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
I don't know whether they want a second spike, but they have certainly gone out of their way to create the impression that a second spike / wave is inevitable...It's not!!
I think most people get it, it's just that some are capable of digesting the information (minus the hyperbole) and forming rational (non hysterical) opinions / reactions instead of going all Chicken Licken.
ElBurroSinNombre
Well-known member
I suppose that it depends what you mean by a second spike but here are a few questions for you.
Do you accept that the daily number of cases is currently rising?
What do you think the outcome of rising case numbers will be,?
Why do you think govenrment are briefing about second wave / spike?
bollieboy
Well-known member
Well you said Kurt (see quote below) was spot on so seemed to me that you were agreeing that that is what the media want. The second spike/wave should not occur if the right actions are taken. If they aren't then it will happen though you may not agree with that.
'The second spike that some people want and the media want will come if it comes '
Jefflynnessongsheet
Well-known member
Although not many going into hospital the long term effects of carrying COVID-19 are quite serious. The heart, lungs and intestines have all been found to have suffered and there’s also been reports of a rise in sepsis cases due to catching this virus.
I suspect a lot of the youngsters catching this now will be dead or seriously ill before they reach 50. A price you pay for being a dumbass I suppose.
COVID-19 long term effects
I suspect a lot of the youngsters catching this now will be dead or seriously ill before they reach 50. A price you pay for being a dumbass I suppose.
COVID-19 long term effects
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
Well I certainly don't mean a reimergence within the community of a virus that has been suppressed. Clearly a "Second Wave" needs to reflect the historical context and appropriate scientific criteria, rather than simply being the media choice of phrase? I mean if we are drawing comparisons with the Spanish Flu, then at least our chosen terminology ought to be accurate, rather than totally misleading?
1. I accept that the published number of confirmed positive cases is rising. I am inclined to believe that means that there is some increase in the number of infections, but that is by no means certain. It is possible that the rising number of cases could be due to more expansive testing. I note that the C19 app, which surveys a signifcant number of individuals in the UK appears to show no increase in predicted case numbers (for example).
2. I've no idea what the outcome will be... It's possible that the numbers will peter out and return to normal, possible that control measures may control the numbers, possible that the numbers are misleading and possible that the numbers may start to rise progressively. Beyond that, I'm not sure how it will impact the population...It's possible there might be a rising number of deaths or not.
3. I think the Government are influenced by scientists and I think that scientists like to create theories. Scientific theories can have wide ranging outcomes and some of them are extremely scarey, whilst others are not very scarey at all. I'm not sure what the overriding motivation of the Government and others is at this point in time....The whole "Schools vs Pubs" narrative is all very interesting as is the potential solution.....It's possible the Government feel they have pushed too fast too soon and are looking for a back door, but there are other possibilities of course.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
More overhyped fear porn!!
A tiny percentage of people die and a tiny percentage also suffer long term health consequences...
I think you can be forgiven for thinking that the media and others want a second spike, given the constant references to it at every pssoible juncture.
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Wizaard
Well-known member
The schools v pubs debate is a complete nonsense, given that local lockdowns have been introduced in response to spikes caused by domestic contact and lack of social distancing between families and friends. Pubs have not been the cause. Arguably, the risk is with schools, as kids won't social distance and then go home and infect the vulnerable members of the family.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
"After Suffering through this virus"
Whilst I'm sure that the virus is horrible for some and I wish you well in your recovery, I'm not sure it qualifies you as an expert. From what I have witnessed on here you seem to fit into the 'hysterical' category in terms of your response and to that extent you aren't exactly adopting a particularly balanced or rational approach. I appreciate that it's possible that your own personal negative experience might have cloured your judgement and that is understandable.
I'm not sure that your experience can explain the rather strange way that you conduct yourself in your interactions on here though. I suspect that has more to do with your personality perhaps.
You are a clown
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
As it would seem is anyone who doesn't share your rather warped perspective on so many things...You are a clown
Ormergod
Well-known member
The advertisement dried up. The government are the biggest contributors financially to the UK media now and it shows itself in the propaganda being churned out day by day. If you look at many propaganda pieces in any newspaper you will likely notice the author will be presented as "UK Government".They have become a mouthpiece.
Ormergod
Well-known member
Yes I think we have to hang on to the thought that it is a result of increasing testing for now.
It does not appear to be translating into more hospitalised cases and deaths so far. I think that was the case in Leicester anyway
From Professor Carl Heneghan from the Centre for Evidence based Medicine:
"It is essential to adjust for the number of tests being done. Leicester and Oldham have seen significant increases in testing in a short time. Leicester, for example in the first two weeks of July did more tests than anywhere else in England: 15,122 tests completed in the two weeks up to 13th July."
Ormergod
Well-known member
Leicester Mercury report the number of testing stations in Leicestershire as five but when Peter Hitchens recently enquired how many testing stations were operational and what dates they opened here was the reply:
"Then there is the simple question: Are there more infections because we are looking harder for them? Well, I can tell you this. I asked for a list of testing stations in Leicester and the dates on which they opened.
One opened on May 1. All the others – seven of them – have opened since June 18, the very period during which the supposed surge has taken place."
"Then there is the simple question: Are there more infections because we are looking harder for them? Well, I can tell you this. I asked for a list of testing stations in Leicester and the dates on which they opened.
One opened on May 1. All the others – seven of them – have opened since June 18, the very period during which the supposed surge has taken place."
Warped no, I’m just quoting published stats and asking people to stay safe. If that’s warped then I’m at a loss to think about your perspective.
You don’t debate or accept others opinions, you just regurgitate your same views over and over again. Possibly the most annoying poster on here, even overtaking Allez.
S
Scaramanga
Guest
Weekly coronavirus deaths fall more than a quarter in seven days
Department of Health chiefs confirmed another 670 Britons had tested positive for the life-threatening disease - down from yesterday's six-week high of 938.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
Some Perspective!!
www.bbc.co.uk
The UK's virus status may be better than we think - BBC News
The negative headlines come thick-and-fast, but there are also signs the UK is on top of the virus.
www.bbc.co.uk
bollieboy
Well-known member
Positive cases up 17 %, number of people tested up 4 %.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
There's a number of potential reasons for the increases in cases, which obviously would include the impact of reversing lock-down measures, but it's certainly not as simple as comparing the number of people tested.
The key for me is in the process of 'track and trace' for two reasons 1) That we are testing people in a more targeted way and focused around areas of actual infection and 2) The timing of the testing has a marked difference on the number of positive results and with Track and Trace we are testing more cases at the optimal time.
Interestingly the latest figures from the C19 App shows a reduction in daily cases from 2800 down to 2110 and the number of people interacting with the app significantly outweighs the Goverments limited random testing strategy.
bollieboy
Well-known member
Hope you are correct that increases are due to track and trace but you would have expected the numbers to have ticked up in the first few weeks after t&t was introduced, not 9 weeks into the process.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
It has clearly taken some time for the T&T system to get going, which seems evident from the increasing success in contacting infected individuals and accessing their close contacts.
BTW I'm not saying that this is the answer, just that it isn't as straightforward as it might seem. There's a lot happening all at the same time right now and so establishing the cause / reason isn't straightforward.