Covid-19 killed three times more people than flu and pneumonia in England and Wales in 2020

we_are_Superior

Well-known member
So according to the Office for National Statistics Covid-19 killed three times more people than flu and pneumonia in England and Wales in 2020. Now whilst this is obviously a concern, doesn't it highlight the massive over-reaction to it?
 

When you publish a figure like that, then of course it has a certain amount of shock value, however when you consider that it is actually 1 Months worth of normal death in the UK, that the average age of death was something like 82 years old and that the overwhelming majority of individuals had signifcant co-morbidities, then it's perhaps a different story.

Certainly up to the age of 30/35, the risk presentented by Covid is apparently less than that of Flu... It then starts to get exponentially worse after that.

Whether we have over-reacted to it or not is difficult to say....
 
When you publish a figure like that, then of course it has a certain amount of shock value, however when you consider that it is actually 1 Months worth of normal death in the UK, that the average age of death was something like 82 years old and that the overwhelming majority of individuals had signifcant co-morbidities, then it's perhaps a different story.

Certainly up to the age of 30/35, the risk presentented by Covid is apparently less than that of Flu... It then starts to get exponentially worse after that.

Whether we have over-reacted to it or not is difficult to say....
My thoughts are we have over reacted to it (understandably so initially), and now despite the evidence which appears to back this up, the govt are hell bent on continuing with these restrictions which in the grand scheme of things aren't doing anything to halt the cases but everything to cripple business and the mental health of an immeasurable amount of people.
I'm convinced it is now part of a bigger picture that will become clearer once Brexit is done and dusted, and a bright new Covid-free Britain will be heralded with much fanfare from the rubble of a disastrous 2020.

(And don't get me started on the contracts that have been handed out)
 
My thoughts are we have over reacted to it (understandably so initially), and now despite the evidence which appears to back this up, the govt are hell bent on continuing with these restrictions which in the grand scheme of things aren't doing anything to halt the cases but everything to cripple business and the mental health of an immeasurable amount of people.
I'm convinced it is now part of a bigger picture that will become clearer once Brexit is done and dusted, and a bright new Covid-free Britain will be heralded with much fanfare from the rubble of a disastrous 2020.

(And don't get me started on the contracts that have been handed out)
Dr. Reiner Fuellmich, a top German lawyer known for corruption trials against Deutsche Bank and VW and now a member of German Corona Investigative Committee says those responsible for the COVID fraud scandal should be trialled for probably the greatest crime against humanity in history.


You won't be surprised to hear I agree.

Amnesty International has published a report detailing widespread human rights abuses in this country, in the 21st century. Also at least 9,500 excess care home deaths caused by the NHS being closed for non-Covid business.

Neither has made the news. Make of that what you will.
 
Dr. Reiner Fuellmich, a top German lawyer known for corruption trials against Deutsche Bank and VW and now a member of German Corona Investigative Committee says those responsible for the COVID fraud scandal should be trialled for probably the greatest crime against humanity in history.


You won't be surprised to hear I agree.

Amnesty International has published a report detailing widespread human rights abuses in this country, in the 21st century. Also at least 9,500 excess care home deaths caused by the NHS being closed for non-Covid business.

Neither has made the news. Make of that what you will.
The latter has never been out of the news. Hardly a conspiracy.
 
The latter has never been out of the news. Hardly a conspiracy.
Debatable. It should be front page news every day, every second right up until MH resigns. Not buried with news of further restrictions.
 
Dr. Reiner Fuellmich, a top German lawyer known for corruption trials against Deutsche Bank and VW and now a member of German Corona Investigative Committee says those responsible for the COVID fraud scandal should be trialled for probably the greatest crime against humanity in history.


You won't be surprised to hear I agree.

Amnesty International has published a report detailing widespread human rights abuses in this country, in the 21st century. Also at least 9,500 excess care home deaths caused by the NHS being closed for non-Covid business.

Neither has made the news. Make of that what you will.
Im sure there has been extra deaths in all Countries. Its incredibly sad, Im sure there has also been far more widespread human rights abuses than those seen in the UK for balance.

We will likely never know the true toll of this disease in many parts of the world.

Suffice to say the death toll & loss of life both through Covid or as a result of its impact will be imho largely underreported.
 
Im sure there has been extra deaths in all Countries. Its incredibly sad, Im sure there has also been far more widespread human rights abuses than those seen in the UK for balance.

We will likely never know the true toll of this disease in many parts of the world.

Suffice to say the death toll & loss of life both through Covid or as a result of its impact will be imho largely underreported.
True. I guess my central argument is that IF the govt knew there was a proven optimal path to take and didn't - for political reasons - then that would make them guilty. How it is/is not reported is a separate matter, I guess.
 
Dr. Reiner Fuellmich, a top German lawyer known for corruption trials against Deutsche Bank and VW and now a member of German Corona Investigative Committee says those responsible for the COVID fraud scandal should be trialled for probably the greatest crime against humanity in history.


You won't be surprised to hear I agree.

Amnesty International has published a report detailing widespread human rights abuses in this country, in the 21st century. Also at least 9,500 excess care home deaths caused by the NHS being closed for non-Covid business.

Neither has made the news. Make of that what you will.

Reiner Fuellmich is a lawyer dealing in consumer protection cases.

I’d love to read up on the German Corona Investigative Committe, if you have any links, it all sounds very official.
The only reference to it that I can find is on a ‘conspiracy nut’ website.
 
Reiner Fuellmich is a lawyer dealing in consumer protection cases.

I’d love to read up on the German Corona Investigative Committe, if you have any links, it all sounds very official.
The only reference to it that I can find is on a ‘conspiracy nut’ website.
Think he was involved in uncovering the VW diesel scandal but could be wrong. The short version of the video (I am told) is that the PCR test for Coronavirus - which underpins govt policy worldwide - is not worth a carrot.
 
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Think he was involved in uncovering the VW diesel scandal but could be wrong.

I think your right there, mate, I’m just a bit sceptical about the group he’s heading up.
I could be wrong, but it has all the hallmarks of a ‘conspiracy theory’ type group, trying to sound more official than it is.
 
I'm convinced it is now part of a bigger picture that will become clearer once Brexit is done and dusted, and a bright new Covid-free Britain will be heralded with much fanfare from the rubble of a disastrous 2020.
BF: What do you think `the much bigger picture is`, and what evidence has led you to the conclusion that something more sinister is afoot?

To me they just look like the blunderings of a chaotic and incompetent third rate government led by a lazy spaffer of a PM.

Are you implying these bunch of halfwits have a cunning covert strategy or ideology underpinning their gross incompetence?
 
Think he was involved in uncovering the VW diesel scandal but could be wrong. The short version of the video (I am told) is that the PCR test for Coronavirus - which underpins govt policy worldwide - is not worth a carrot.
The only evidence that he was involved in the VW testing scandal are his claims. There are no references anywhere else I can find about his involvement apart from one's that emanate from his own claims. He was certainly not involved in uncovering the scandal but he may have been involved in subsequent litigation - the only evidence we have to go by are his own claims.
 
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I think your right there, mate, I’m just a bit sceptical about the group he’s heading up.
I could be wrong, but it has all the hallmarks of a ‘conspiracy theory’ type group, trying to sound more official than it is.
Possibly. There's a lot of people trying to make sense of all this nonsense, some ending up very wide of the target. The official narrative isn't exactly on point either - but I'll raise a thread on Foucoultian power/knowledge production theories another time.
 
The only evidence that he was involved in the VW testing scandal our his claims. There are no references anywhere else I can find about his involvement apart from one's that emanate from his own claims. He was certainly not involved in uncovering the scandal but he may have been involved in subsequent litigation - the only evidence we have to go by are his own claims.
I did say I could be wrong.
 
BF: What do you think `the much bigger picture is`, and what evidence has led you to the conclusion that something more sinister is afoot?

To me they just look like the blunderings of a chaotic and incompetent third rate government led by a lazy spaffer of a PM.

Are you implying these bunch of halfwits have a cunning covert strategy or ideology underpinning their gross incompetence?
As I touched on in my earlier post, behavior such as the issuing of contracts to their mates due to the tender process being abandoned, the local lockdowns of poorer traditional Labour areas whilst wealthier areas with high infection rates being left alone, the fear tactics constantly on the headlines hiding the Brexit no deal shambles, the manipulation of figures to suit whichever narrative they need to push at the time, the list goes on.

I agree they are incompetent, but the fact they have such a majority and virtually no opposition is enabling them to act in this manner.
It doesn't have to be covert or cunning because they're getting away with all of the above unchallenged.
 
I think your right there, mate, I’m just a bit sceptical about the group he’s heading up.
I could be wrong, but it has all the hallmarks of a ‘conspiracy theory’ type group, trying to sound more official than it is.

Only 4 members of the group, SAGE typically has 30 - 40 at its meetings with 100+ contributing in the sub-groups, even the "Indy SAGE" campaign group has 12 memebers.

First impressions: ambulance chasers.
 
Maybe 40 to 50 billion?

...or are we just making numbers up?

Some rough and ready workings.

We know that about 6% of the population had it, which led to 60,000 excess deaths, without lockdown I think that number would be more like 60%, which would extrapolate to 600,000 excess deaths.

Possibly the populations age structure and other factors might've reduced that somewhat, set against that is the fact that the NHS would certainly have been overwhelmed by the outbreak, I'd guess somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000, which is about what the SAGE modellers were suggesting at the time.
 
Comparisions with flu deaths in Uk

At the time of writing this article in March, Public Health England told Full Fact it estimated that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19 - with the yearly deaths varying widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19.
 
Interesting graph. Flu deaths dropped dramatically after Flu Vaccination introduced in 2000. I don't remember lockdown when Flu deaths were over 50,000 in the 90's.
More Covid-19 deaths than flu or pneumonia in any year since 2000. . Almost 50,000 deaths in 2020 are due to Covid-19. the last time flu-and-pneumonia saw this many deaths was before the introduction of widespread flu vaccination in the UK in 2000.  Widespread UK flu vaccination introduced in 2000.
 
Some rough and ready workings.

We know that about 6% of the population had it, which led to 60,000 excess deaths, without lockdown I think that number would be more like 60%, which would extrapolate to 600,000 excess deaths.

Possibly the populations age structure and other factors might've reduced that somewhat, set against that is the fact that the NHS would certainly have been overwhelmed by the outbreak, I'd guess somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000, which is about what the SAGE modellers were suggesting at the time.
First... We ‘think’ that only 6% of the population had it, despite tests elsewhere revealing that up to 3X the number of positive antibody tests showed evidence of Covid related T Cell response.

Second we have no idea whether or not a significant proportion of the remaining population failed to get Covid through lack of exposure or some other reason (immunity for example).

Third, based on the age / health profile of the 60,000 excess deaths and the short amount of time the virus has been present, we still have no real idea what we are dealing with here... By that, I mean whether we have seen a marginal ‘bringing forward’ of death or whether lives have been significantly shortened... An average age of death that is marginally above the average life expectancy, would suggest that we may not be dealing with a significant loss of ‘life expectancy’ .
Finally, it’s really difficult to understand what the immediate and also the long term impact of the lockdown will be in loss and quality of life expectancy in order to balance this vs any possible benefit.

On that basis, it’s extremely difficult to understand whether or no we over-reacted. What the full extent of a different approach might have been and whether or not the 250-500,000 figure was at all realistic.
 
First... We ‘think’ that only 6% of the population had it, despite tests elsewhere revealing that up to 3X the number of positive antibody tests showed evidence of Covid related T Cell response.

Second we have no idea whether or not a significant proportion of the remaining population failed to get Covid through lack of exposure or some other reason (immunity for example).

Third, based on the age / health profile of the 60,000 excess deaths and the short amount of time the virus has been present, we still have no real idea what we are dealing with here... By that, I mean whether we have seen a marginal ‘bringing forward’ of death or whether lives have been significantly shortened... An average age of death that is marginally above the average life expectancy, would suggest that we may not be dealing with a significant loss of ‘life expectancy’ .
Finally, it’s really difficult to understand what the immediate and also the long term impact of the lockdown will be in loss and quality of life expectancy in order to balance this vs any possible benefit.

On that basis, it’s extremely difficult to understand whether or no we over-reacted. What the full extent of a different approach might have been and whether or not the 250-500,000 figure was at all realistic.

Sorry to say that we also don't truly know whether those who died 'from COVID' really did die from it or whether many would have struggled to survive anyway due to underlying conditions and the potential exposure to another 'killer virus'. There was clearly an effort to force compliance through fear in how the figures were collated and presented. IMO.
 
There was clearly an effort to force compliance through fear in how the figures were collated and presented. IMO.
I agree, which I believe has now led to a greater number of people, especially amongst the young, not complying with the muddled guidelines and restrictions based on figures which seem best described as inflated.
 
First... We ‘think’ that only 6% of the population had it, despite tests elsewhere revealing that up to 3X the number of positive antibody tests showed evidence of Covid related T Cell response.

Second we have no idea whether or not a significant proportion of the remaining population failed to get Covid through lack of exposure or some other reason (immunity for example).

The rate of change in infection numbers doesn't point to significant levels of immunity (17,540 cases today, over double the number for last week), it's about the same rate of growth as back in March as well.

Likewise the T-cell response is far from clear cut evidence of exposure to the virus nor is it clear cut evidence of immunity.

Finally, if you know about T-cells I'm sure the CMO etc does as well, and IIRC this was something that was being talked about in June/July.
 
The rate of change in infection numbers doesn't point to significant levels of immunity (17,540 cases today, over double the number for last week), it's about the same rate of growth as back in March as well.

Likewise the T-cell response is far from clear cut evidence of exposure to the virus nor is it clear cut evidence of immunity.

Finally, if you know about T-cells I'm sure the CMO etc does as well, and IIRC this was something that was being talked about in June/July.
Nowhere near the growth rate in March... more like half the rate TBF.
 
Nowhere near the growth rate in March... more like half the rate TBF.

Source?

Here's mine: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I suggest you use deaths/hospitalisations as a proxy for cases back at the start due to the limited testing capacity, comparision is to cases now because deaths have yet to catch up, presumably down to differences in age profile of the infected individuals. better protection of the care sector etc.
 
So according to the Office for National Statistics Covid-19 killed three times more people than flu and pneumonia in England and Wales in 2020. Now whilst this is obviously a concern, doesn't it highlight the massive over-reaction to it?
We haven' treally had the flu season for 2020 yet, so a bit of an odd comparison
 
Source?

Here's mine: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I suggest you use deaths/hospitalisations as a proxy for cases back at the start due to the limited testing capacity, comparision is to cases now because deaths have yet to catch up, presumably down to differences in age profile of the infected individuals. better protection of the care sector etc.
In March, cases were doubling pretty much every 4.5 days (source...data extracted from the government published figures at the time)

Similarly, deaths doubling every 4-5 days, so on that basis reasonable to assume ventilator and hospital numbers would follow same profile.

The case rates for the past week or two are all over the show, due to data not being applied to the correct dates, but going off Here, where they have tried to apportion data appropriately, it looks like doubling every 8-10 days.

Similarly admitted patients is also fitting in with the 9 day doubling ergo about half the pace seen in Mid March.
 
In March, cases were doubling pretty much every 4.5 days (source...data extracted from the government published figures at the time)

Hmmm, possibly on reflection.

However remember that in March much of the data relates to infections acquired pre-lockdown, with much less understanding of the virus, inadequate protections in care homes and no real-time picture of the scale of the outbreak.

The fact that the virus is spreading a bit more slowly than in March given the improvements made over the last 6 months does not look like evidence that the 6% estimate is significantly wrong.
 
Interesting graph. Flu deaths dropped dramatically after Flu Vaccination introduced in 2000. I don't remember lockdown when Flu deaths were over 50,000 in the 90's.
More Covid-19 deaths than flu or pneumonia in any year since 2000. . Almost 50,000 deaths in 2020 are due to Covid-19. the last time flu-and-pneumonia saw this many deaths was before the introduction of widespread flu vaccination in the UK in 2000.  Widespread UK flu vaccination introduced in 2000.
I don't remember people having the flu and not realising and then going on to infect several other people either.
 
Hmmm, possibly on reflection.

However remember that in March much of the data relates to infections acquired pre-lockdown, with much less understanding of the virus, inadequate protections in care homes and no real-time picture of the scale of the outbreak.

The fact that the virus is spreading a bit more slowly than in March given the improvements made over the last 6 months does not look like evidence that the 6% estimate is significantly wrong.
All I’m saying is that there is some very reasonable doubt about the 6% figure and also the assumption that without the lockdown measure imposed that numbers would have been significantly higher.

I think the Government and their advisors have even accepted that the virus was on the turn prior to the introduction of lockdown measures.

Where we go right now.... who knows. Whether it’s every 5 days or every 10 days, doubling values soon get out of control.
 
All I’m saying is that there is some very reasonable doubt about the 6% figure

That seems to be overstating it, there's maybe a small chance that the true figure is outside of the confidence interval, to get up to the sort of figures you are talking about looks extremely unlikely to me.


and also the assumption that without the lockdown measure imposed that numbers would have been significantly higher.

I think the Government and their advisors have even accepted that the virus was on the turn prior to the introduction of lockdown measures.

Source? And please a link, not "government sources at the time".

There might have been an effect from the 16 March measures and other behaviour changes but whether this would've slowed the growth sufficiently is undetermined.
 
That seems to be overstating it, there's maybe a small chance that the true figure is outside of the confidence interval, to get up to the sort of figures you are talking about looks extremely unlikely to me.




Source? And please a link, not "government sources at the time".

There might have been an effect from the 16 March measures and other behaviour changes but whether this would've slowed the growth sufficiently is undetermined.

Source 1


Source 2

I’m struggling with limited internet, so can’t find a link for now. The study was referenced in the news though and essentially concluded that lockdown was too heavy handed and unnecessarily so.
 
1st July, a tiny study that demonstrates something uncertain and of which the effect is uncertain, one might hope that 3 months on if there was anything much in this we'd see better evidence.
We research costs money and I’m not sure that other countries would see the same value in the research. Clearly it was important for Sweden, given the Herd Immunity approach.

I think it’s also fair to say that many scientists including our own appointed officials were surprised that the infection rates (based on antibodies) were so low.

Anyway you asked for evidence, I gave you evidence. The point I was making is nothing is set in stone here and therefore the maths is t as simple / academic as your post suggested.

There’s significant room for markedly different outcomes.
 
WHO estimate 10% of the world's population has been infected. That makes the Infection Fatality Rate around 0.14% - similar to flu.
 
WHO estimate 10% of the world's population has been infected. That makes the Infection Fatality Rate around 0.14% - similar to flu.
Lots of other estimates of the IFR are way higher & its obviously easier to catch than flu & is killing far more.
 
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