The Bookies obsession with 'big clubs'

Poolfan2

Well-known member
Why do they always go for what they feel is the most recognisable name!

And ahead of the semi-finals kicking-off on May 18, Sky Bet have revealed their favourites to gain promotion.
Sunderland are the early favourites, with Blackpool next in line.
Oxford United are then third-favourites and along with Lincoln City are considered outsiders – despite the latter being in promotion contention for most of the season.
Here’s the latest odds ahead of the League One play-offs:
Sunderland – 13 / 8
Blackpool – 11 / 4
Lincoln City – 10 / 3
Oxford United – 10 / 3
 
For the same reason you never get true odds on England winning a tournament cos many here back us through hope and blind loyalty. If Sunderland fans had any intelligence, which they have not, they would back one of the others. For me Lincoln look very overpriced, based on the fact we have not beaten them this season.
 
Sunderland are favourites to win the league every season they've been in this division, bookies must have made a killing!
 
Bookies normally lose more when a favourite wins.
Yeah but Sunderland never win the league, yet they're favourites every year - probably due to the fact loads of people bet on them to win the league because its Sunderland.

End of season comes, Sunderland capitulation happens, bookies don't have to pay out!
 
FiveThirtyEight the statistical modellers who are famous for their work on US elections have us as narrow favourites:

Interesting that Lincoln are fourth favourites - I think they've had a better last few games than Sunderland who I genuinely think will struggle to make the final.
 
Bookmakers would have had more liabilities built up over the season on Sunderland than anyone else, that's one of the reasons why they are favourites. They stand to lose more on them, and limit the exposure now its a four horse race to avoid further losses by making them a shorter price. is the easiest way to explain it to dummies. For what its worth anyone backing them now at that price is a mug.

Generally when bookmakers make a favourite in an event, race, football season or whatever its not necessarily what they think will win, its what they think the betting public think will win that also drives it. They know 13/8 is no value on Sunderland but will be happy for the public to take it and probably hedge some of the stakes on the other three teams to balance their book to ensure a profit. Simple.
 
Interesting that on Quest, Colin Murray went Lincoln, Kevin Phillips went loyalty and backed Sunderland, while the League One expert who's name escapes me said 'Blackpool are the best side. They'll win'.
 
Interesting that on Quest, Colin Murray went Lincoln, Kevin Phillips went loyalty and backed Sunderland, while the League One expert who's name escapes me said 'Blackpool are the best side. They'll win'.
That's Ali Maxwell from the "not the top 20" podcast.
 
There are 2 approaches that a bookie can take, this depends on whether the bookie is a risk taker with an opinion, in which case they think a favourite has weakness so they will put the odds slightly above the other bookies to attract the money whilst reducing the odds on the rest of the field, this means their field money, or money in the hod/till is all/mostly for the favourite and they stand to lose a lot if the favourite wins, they will keep all/most of the field money if anyone else in betting wins.
The other approach is levelling the book. This is where the bookie aims to take certain amounts of money on each participant/runner etc. if successful the bookie ends up with a book for an event where no matter who wins, the bookie will keep/win some of the field money. I remember clerking for my Dad at the Grand National the year Earth Summit won. He took 3k on the race and every horse won us some money, the worst result for us was winning £400, Earth Summit winning resulted in us keeping around £600. My Dad always aimed for this approach, and most of the time he succeeded.
 
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If you think the odds offered by bookmakers about any occurrence happening are greater than the true chance of that occurrence happening then you should win over a long period time.
 
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