Recent content by foggy

I think what we are seeing in local elections vs by elections is more and more divergence. They don't get huge turnouts but we are getting more mayors and some are proving very popular. It's quite easy for them to capitalise on anger/distrust at Westminster. I wonder if the future for renewed...

Very true, but protest votes usually do well in local elections and by elections but Reform haven't, is my point. Political disenfranchisement is happening all over the world. I'm not really sure what a realistic long term solution is to it. My first instinct is PR but is turnout in European...

No it is not me who sets these targets, it's a benchmark set by other strongly performing third parties. The data doesn't lie. When compared to that, it's dismal. You're saying it's not because it's an improvement. Ok, compared to where Reform were a year ago it's better. I'm discussing them in...

I will try to explain this again, but I'm not sure how I can be clearer. Voting intention is a national average. If Reform were to get 14% of the vote across the UK in a general election tomorrow, they would logically have to get into the 20s in Blackpool South. It is a demographically friendly...

You're saying they can't get votes out in local and by elections, of course that's worse. That's the bread and butter of third parties. Their national polling has plateaued over the last month and all evidence shows it isn't translating to votes. They will be going up against the two party...

I think they do have poor infrastructure but I just don't see that as changing between now and the General Election. I's been a terrible local elections for them so far. If you compare the wards where they have stood and UKIP stood previous, their share is well below. Reform are on 12%, UKIP got...

Gotcha, thanks for the info.

Yes I know, they are in a worse position, as is my point and continues to be evidenced. Your claim they will do better at a GE is baseless hope. Which you are entitled to, but it has no supporting evidence. They campaigned hard in this election by all accounts. Amounted to little.

I know, I'm comparing what UKIP would have got if this was a by election in their hey day

It was an about average turnout for a by election. Third parties usually do well in by elections. They had a relatively strong candidate. If you chart the history of UKIP in by elections in the mid 2010s, at 14% nationally they would have expected to get 27% in Blackpool South last night. Poor...

Yep, Blackpool South often lazily gets mislabeled as one of these traditional Labour heartlands. Very very strong Tory seat since it's creation until 97 and now again. Harbingers of massive Labour majorities.

A result that shows Labour are underrepresented on here and Reform far overrepresented. Also a result that continues to show the idea people really want to vote for third parties is too simplistic. Labour at nearly 60% is massive. Tory vote plummeted and it nearly all went to Labour. Pretty...

Reform sound chippy and with a latest YouGov poll today has Tories plummeting to new depths even Truss didn't manage. If that poll is true and not an outlier it would certainly bring Blackpool South into the sort of territory where you expect Reform to come 2nd. Sounds like Labour will romp home...

It would certainly reflect what has been happening for two years now. People saying that nobody really likes Labour all that much while they rack up some of the biggest by-election wins in UK parliamentary history on course to winning what is likely to be the largest majority for a single party...

Almost certain Labour will get higher than the 44% they are on here and Reform will likely get closer to half of what it is on this poll. My prediction would be Labour 49% Conservatives 28% Reform 17% Labour will want to hit 50 but might fall just short at 48/49. Reform have plateaued...